Relief for braai lovers in South Africa
Heritage month in South Africa features a lot of braaiing, with people across all cultures turning to the country’s favourite pastime as the weather heats up.
However, anyone lighting up the grill in September will find that prices have climbed a bit higher since they celebrated last year, expecially meat prices.
Thankfully, it appears as if the trend is cooling, with the year-on-year basket inflation narrowing when compared to the last three months.
The latest Braai Index for September shows that there has been some mild price relief for the basket month-on-month, but year-on-year inflation has ticked higher for the third consecutive month.
The index dropped a mild 2.4% between August and September, helped along by declining prices for sides—especially potatoes.
However, year-on-year prices pushed 3.1% higher, driven by a 25% jump in the price of beef.
The Braai Index, originally developed by Bloomberg, is compiled monthly using pricing data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD) group.
It tracks the prices of a selection of essential items typically used for a South African braai, offering a more focused view of inflation at the grill.
The index includes meat (beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).
The month-on-month index has shown another positive move for those who prefer the sides and salads at a braai over the main event—the meat.
Potatoes, carrots, spinach, onions, and tomatoes all decreased in price for a third consecutive month, meaning the salads were sorted. Beef prices were down slightly m-o-m, joined by samp.
Other meat, like wors, continued to climb.
Overall, the month-on-month basket was down slightly by 2.4% between August and September, a further reduction from the 3.0% decrease seen between July and August.
Unfortunately, annual price inflation remains higher at 3.1% overall, though reduced from the 6.7% in August, 9% in July and the 8.9% in June.
This shows a slowing down in inflation for the braai basket.
Month-on-month index change [-2.4%]
Year-on-year index change [+3.1%]
Price pressure feeding through
One of the biggest price pressures year-on-year is beef prices, which have been steadily climbing following the outbreak of foot and mouth disease at South Africa’s biggest feedlot earlier in the year.
The upward trend in beef prices was also a stand-out data point in the latest inflation data for August.
While Stats SA recorded a surprising decline in inflation for August at 3.3%, versus expectations of 3.6%, inflation for food & non-alcoholic beverages remained higher than average at 5.2%.
Several categories of food NAB recorded lower rates, including cereal products; fish & other seafood; milk, other dairy products & eggs; fruits & nuts; and vegetables.
However, meat prices, particularly beef, continued to track at elevated rates.
Beef products continued to register high annual rates, even if the monthly price increase in August was the lowest since April.
Beef mince saw a 12-month change of 27.2% and a monthly rise of 0.2%. Stewing beef grew at an annual rate of 32.3% while its monthly change was 0.6%.
Beef steak prices were 28.6% higher than a year ago, even if they were down by 1.2% between July and August.
Inflation data tracks the Braai Index by a month, but is usually in line when the data eventually catches up. This means that prices should reflect double-digit inflation in the official data, but on a cooling trend.
Beef prices are expected to stabilise towards the end of the year, so festive season braais may come at a more affordable price point.
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