Goodbye Cape Town – reverse semigration shift gaining momentum

·7 Feb 2026

South Africa’s long-running semigration trend, which for years saw households relocating from inland provinces to the coast, is slowing—with more households returning to inland provinces like Gauteng.

New data from banks, estate agencies, and other platforms show that while coastal areas remain attractive, demand is becoming more evenly spread across the country, with Gauteng in particular seeing renewed demand from buyers and movers.

This shift was hinted at in Absa’s latest Homeowners Sentiment Index (HSI) for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The index showed that sentiment around buying property increased by three percentage points to 80% among inland respondents, while remaining unchanged at 74% in coastal regions.

According to Absa, the main positive drivers for sentiment in both regions include the belief that property remains a good long-term investment, that prices will increase, and that buying property can generate profit.

Inland respondents also pointed to the availability of bargains currently on the market as a key motivator.

Sentiment around selling property moved in opposite directions across regions. In inland areas, selling sentiment declined by three percentage points, while coastal regions recorded a notable seven-point increase.

At the same time, sentiment around investing in property rose to 86% inland but slipped slightly to 82% at the coast.

Respondents in both regions remain confident that property will accumulate in value over time and deliver solid returns, although concerns differ.

Coastal respondents cited high prices as the main deterrent to investing, while inland respondents pointed to broader economic pressures.

Affordability is also influencing lifestyle decisions. Sentiment around buying rather than renting declined marginally in coastal regions but increased by three percentage points inland.

Coastal respondents specifically flagged affordability challenges, while inland buyers appeared more optimistic.

Overall confidence in the future of the property market improved in both regions, rising to 88% inland and 85% in coastal areas.

Absa noted that despite these gains, a clear differential remains between inland and coastal confidence levels, with coastal respondents more concerned about unemployment, crime, and other economic issues.

Affordability and job prospects

Real estate groups noted that these trends are increasingly reflected in buyer behaviour. Several agencies have noted a growing number of people looking to return to Gauteng.

These property experts noted that better job opportunities and significantly lower property prices were cited as the primary reasons for moving away from coastal metros.

Affordability is a major drawcard for Johannesburg and the surrounding areas. Property prices, including rentals, remain far lower than in Cape Town, allowing buyers to secure larger homes or better-located properties for the same budget.

Seeff Properties Chairman Samuel Seeff said the price gap becomes even more pronounced in the upper end of the market.

In Johannesburg, the luxury segment typically ranges from R5 million to R15 million, while in Cape Town it starts around R8.5 million and extends well beyond R30 million, with a notable number of properties selling between R20 million and R100 million in recent years.

Pam Golding Properties CEO Andrew Golding described 2025 as a year of evolution for semigration.

While there was a continued, albeit slower, flow of people to the Western Cape, Gauteng experienced a form of reverse semigration, with a partial return of individuals.

He said this was largely driven by employment opportunities inland and the rising cost of living in coastal cities.

These shifts are also evident in moving data. Online platform Wise Move, which connects households with removal companies, recorded a 40% year-on-year increase in moves from Cape Town to Gauteng in 2025.

Co-founder and CEO Chante Venter said the company facilitated about 18,000 home moves last year, up from 15,000 in 2024, with around half heading to Gauteng.

To illustrate the growing difference in affordability between Cape Town and Johannesburg, as suggested by Seeff, especially in the high-end market, we show what you can buy for R10 million in each city below.