DA is losing support under Maimane: poll
A new poll conducted by New World Wealth shows that the Democratic Alliance may be losing its ‘traditional’ support base under the leadership of Mmusi Maimane.
As part of its South Africa 2016 Wealth Report, NWW polled 650 ordinary South Africans on who they would vote for in the 2019 general election.
“Our sample included South Africans across demographic groups that matched the country as a whole,” it said.
The results showed that the ANC will see an upswing in popularity with deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa as the party’s leader.
“It also shows that Maimane may be losing the DA’s traditional support base, NWW said.
Read: Poll shows DA and ANC losing support in major metro
More than three quarters (78%) of respondents said that they would vote for the ANC if Ramaphosa is the leader – above the 62% that the ANC won in the 2014 election.
Only 8% of respondents said that they would vote for the DA if Maimane is the leader – significantly lower than 22% in the 2014 election.
The new kid on the political block, 7% of respondents said that they would vote for the Economic Freedom Fighters, headed by Julius Malema. This is slightly above the 6% that the party won in the 2014 election.
The poll’s results showed that 7% of respondents said they would vote for other political parties.
According to NWW, the DA’s decision to elect Maimane in May 2015 was widely heralded by the local media. His appointment is clearly aimed at winning the African vote.
“However, at the same time the DA are assuming that they will continue to get the white vote, but this may be unrealistic. Having an African leader and one with so little experience may well push many more experienced white people out of the party and voters are likely to notice.
“Maimane is also a well-known proponent of BEE and AA policies which are against the interests of white voters. Another party may well emerge to attract the white vote,” the report said.
NWW said that the support of colored voters also cannot be guaranteed.
“It is important to remember that in 1994 the bulk of colored voters voted for the Nationalists (NP). They effectively only started voting DA after the DP and NP merged in 2000. They could easily switch to another party again.”
The report also highlighted the following country risks going forward:
- A rising level of government regulation in the business sector. Aspects of this include exchange controls, high tax rates and BEE hiring requirements. All these factors make it unnecessarily complicated to start and run businesses in the country.
- A rising number of strikes and labor action over the past few years, which has impacted heavily on certain parts of economy, most notably the mining and utilities sectors.
- The HIV epidemic – it is estimated that 22% of the adult population is HIV positive, which equates to over five million people. This places significant strain on South Africa’s long-term prospects, both from a social and economic point of view. It is also a major deterrent to bringing up children in the country.
- Government corruption and inefficiency, specifically relating to tenders and personal expenses.
- The unemployment rate in South Africa, which exceeds 24% (source: trading economics). This is well above the emerging market average and the highest among the top 40 economies worldwide. This is partly due to a relatively high degree of labor market rigidity in South Africa with trade unions having a strong presence in the country. The apartheid government has also created a large pool of poorly educated people, contributing to widespread skill mismatches.
- A relatively high crime rate, which deters foreign investors and tourists and is a major deterrent to bringing up children in the country.
- The rising level of emigration of wealthy people out of the country – the same thing occurred in Zimbabwe just before it collapsed.
- Student protests – most students in SA expect free tertiary education which seems unrealistic considering that only a few countries worldwide have this and the ones that do are very wealthy on a per capita basis (example Sweden).
- The recent collapse in commodity prices, which places pressure on SA exports and growth prospects.
- The current electricity crisis. Load shedding began in 2008. The situation appeared to have been contained during the 2009 to 2014 period. However, regular blackouts and load shedding returned in early 2015.
[Image by Jurgen Marx]
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