This is who would be ANC president if the party voted today
Former ANC MP and South African Ambassador to Ireland, Melanie Verwoerd, has calculated who the next president of the ANC would be if the party voted right now.
In a column published on News24, Verwoerd noted that Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma remain the two front runners for party president, with Zweli Mkhize and Baleka Mbete named as strong secondary candidates.
If the party voted along the same trend as it did in 2012, however, Dlamini-Zuma would come out on top.
This conclusion is based on how the slate votes went at the ANC’s 53rd National Conference in Mangaung held in 2012, but brought in line with how the ANC’s current political factions are drawn.
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
Verwoerd believes that the Women’s League, Youth League and Veterans will support Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
“I think we can also fairly safely assume that both the delegates and additional provincial delegates from the Free State, North West and Mpumalanga will support her.”
Using the 2012 Mangaung slate figures, her supporting votes would add up to 1,168 votes.
“The question is then whether the deeply divided KZN will give her their unanimous support. If so, that would add another 974 votes giving her a total of 2,142 votes.”
As a result, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the current forerunner, with the KZN branches being a deciding factor.
Cyril Ramaphosa
If Cyril Ramaphosa can get the support of all the other provinces, it would add up to 2,114, Verwoerd said, falling just short of Dlamini-Zuma’s 2,142.
However, if the ANC’s KZN vote splits (which remains a possibility), it could add an additional 487 to the total – which would mean victory for Ramaphosa with 2,601 votes.
This scenario relies heavily on the KZN faction splitting.
Baleka Mbete/Zweli Mkhize
If either Baleka Mbete or Zweli Mkhize decide to join the leadership race, they would split the votes, Verword said, with Mbete taking some of Dlamini-Zuma’s votes while Mkhize will eat into Ramaphosa’s.
In any of these scenarios, and based on previous figures, KZN and the Eastern Cape would be the deciding provinces.
Changes since Mangaung and other factors
Verwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,” Verwoerd said.
You can read the full column on News24
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