Who will be president of South Africa if no party obtains a 50% majority in 2019?
With much controversy surrounding the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States, legal expert Pierre De Vos assesses the current appointment system in South Africa.
Writing on his blog, Constitutionally Speaking, De Vos questions whether it may be time to change the current system in South Africa, “or will a new era of coalition politics address the democratic deficit in the current system?” he asked.
On paper, the election of the South African president is far less open to manipulation by the money men and women who wish to capture the state than is the case in the US, he argued. “Because it is party-driven it is also, on paper, far less dependent on the accurate, fair and critical reporting on individual candidates by the electronic and print media.”
De Vos pointed out that the South African president is elected by the 400 members of the National Assembly (NA) at the first sitting of the NA after its election. The first candidate who receives more than 200 votes from NA members becomes the president.
“The NA also has the power to ‘fire’ the president and the cabinet by passing a vote of no confidence in the president. This it can do with a simple majority of 201,” he said.
Where one political party has obtained more than 50% of the seats in the NA, the leader of that political party will be elected president as was the case for president Jacob Zuma in 2009 and 2014.
“Unless exceptional circumstances are present – for example, where the leader of the governing party has already served two consecutive terms as president of the country and cannot be re-elected – it is a foregone conclusion that the leader of the majority party in the NA will be elected president of the country,” De Vos said.
On paper this means that only active ANC branch members have a direct say in the election of the president. De Vos stressed that all voters have an indirect say in the election of a president through their support for the party of their choice in a national election.
He noted that in 2015 the ANC had a membership of just over 750,000. Between 4,000 and 5,000 of these members are nominated or elected to attend the elective conference where the president of the party and the other national leaders are elected.
“But this process is not without its problems. At the ANC’s 2015 national general council (NGC) president Jacob Zuma criticised attempts by some within the party to manipulate elections through ‘gate keeping’ and ‘vote buying’.” He added that the same issues were highlighted by Zuma again earlier this month.
De Vos pointed out that ‘gate keeping in the context of elections refers to the control exerted by regional party leaders over branches. This control is often established and maintained through the distribution of various forms of patronage to those who directly control branches.
“Such control can allow regional power brokers to control who get selected to become branch chairpersons and ultimately who get selected to attend the ANC elective conference,” he said.
Vote buying can occur at an elective conference – although this can be minimised by enforcing the rule prohibiting delegates from having a cell phone present when they vote, the legal expert said.
How DA leaders are chosen
De Vos said that less is known about the process for the election of the national leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA).
“From what I can tell, the DA’s system is aimed at ensuring a different form of gate keeping by the leaders and public representatives of the party. In terms of section 6.1.3 of its Constitution, the Federal Congress (where national leaders are elected) is largely comprised of existing office bearers of the party and of other elected public representatives. This means that a disproportionate number of people who elect leaders are party insiders.
Read: This is who would be ANC president if the party voted today
“Non-public representative delegates from branches are elected in terms of a system ‘approved by the Federal Council or Federal Executive’ and must comprise at least 35% of delegates.
“This means that representatives of branches are not likely to form the majority of delegates attending the elective Federal Congress. The majority of people who will elect new leaders have been pre-selected because they are already DA leaders or public representatives,” De Vos said.
That said, in the unlikely event that the DA leader becomes the president of the country in 2019, he or she would in practice have been elected by a few thousand party members, “but in this case, most of them would not even be rank and file members of the party”.
De Vos said that if the political parties retain their current method of electing party leaders, it is unclear whether the direct election of the president would make a marked difference to who in fact selects the president, as the party will decide on the candidate and the voters will vote for the candidate who represents their preferred party.
But what happens if – either in 2019 or 2024 – no party obtains at least 50% of the seats in the NA?
If that happens, according to De Vos, a coalition would have to be formed at national government level – much like the coalitions formed in various Metro’s after the local government election last year.
“During coalition talks, various parties will negotiate with one another to try and hammer out a coalition agreement. One of the most important issues to be decided would be who would serve as president and how many cabinet position each coalition party will be entitled to and which portfolios they will be permitted to control.
“If the leader of the largest party is particularly unpopular, smaller parties may even agree to form a coalition on the condition that the leader of the largest party does not become president,” De Vos said.
He said that although this scenario would not directly enhance the democratic accountability of the president (as the president is still likely to be the leader of one of the larger parties selected by a few thousand party members at an elective conference), it may indirectly make the president and the entire cabinet more responsive to the needs of the electorate and hence more democratically accountable.
“This is because the president and other cabinet members will suddenly not only be accountable to the leadership of their own party. They will also be accountable to coalition partners as the President and his or her fellow party cabinet members will need to retain the support and confidence of coalition partners to ensure that the coalition survives,” De Vos said.
He cited an example where the president in a coalition government gets caught up in a corruption scandal, some coalition partners might worry that their party would be tainted by the scandal.
“They could then demand that the president be replaced by another leader serving in the government. If the dominant party in the coalition refuses to ditch its leader tainted by scandal, the other coalition parties could then support a motion of no confidence in the president and collapse the coalition government.”
A new coalition government could then be formed or a new election could be held if a new coalition government cannot be agreed on, De Vos said.
He said that coalition governments could be one way to mitigate against the negative effects of the chosen system.
- By Pierre De Vos
- This article was originally published on Constitutionally Speaking
Read: These are the candidates most likely to be the next president of the ANC
Loading ...