Why Dlamini-Zuma will be the next president of South Africa
Research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto says that the race to be the next president of the ANC is going to kick up a gear now that the party’s NEC has opened up discussions – and will likely be a dirty one.
The analyst said he and the Nomura team were recently in South Africa looking at the factions in the succession debate, and to understand politics, personalities and policies involved.
It is understood that deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and president Jacob Zuma’s favoured candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma are the front-runners in the race – but neither one is seen as a sure thing by either side of the ANC’s factions.
“We sense confidence from the Zuma faction that it can win, but this is not 100%. We sense some misgivings over their candidate and that she is there for lack of anyone else really suitable,” the analyst said.
“The same can also be said of the Ramaphosa camp, where again there are misgivings internally about his candidature, but a lack of anyone else suitable yet with enough coalescing power.
“We have been told repeatedly by the Ramaphosa camp that we underestimate him, and yet in the next breath conceded that the other side will not stick to the rules.”
According to Attard Montalto, there have been attempts from the Ramaphosa camp to reach some sort of compromise – however, the Dlamini-Zuma camp, emboldened by president Zuma’s power base in the NEC, have been happy to dig deeper into factionalism.
“That said, with elements of both factions somewhat uneasy with their candidates we wonder about tail risk, where the whole thing flips out in H2 to some other sets of candidates, but this is not our baseline.”
These are some of the other outcomes of Nomura’s analysis of the ANC’s presidential race:
Ramaphosa – winning over the public, but losing the power struggle
- Ramaphosa is well-funded, but is trailing behind in operational logistics, particularly in campaign staffing.
- Campaigning is at a ‘quiet’ stage, with lots of speeches. After the policy conference, the race is expected to get more aggressive, with underhanded tactics being used to shut the other factions down. Ramaphosa has the most to lose here.
- Ramaphosa is working to change the long-standing impression that he has done little in public or behind the scenes to show any drive for the Presidency or ability to get things done for the better for South Africa (or investors).
- Ramaphosa is receiving a warm reception ‘on the ground’ around the country.
- Ramaphosa will ‘win’ the broad public battle and approval in the media. He may also win the hearts and minds of ordinary ANC members. His support at grassroots level is still up in the air, however.
Dlamini-Zuma – Zuma’s favourite and keeper of his legacy
- According to Nomura, Dlamini-Zuma appears to be the more well-funded of the two candidate, and is further ahead in operational logistics and staffing for her campaign.
- The Dlamini-Zuma camp will use land as a key policy wedge in the party after the policy conference – even if such a policy may well not see the light of day during her Presidency.
- Dlamini-Zuma is receiving a cold response ‘on the ground’ around the country, but has far more vocal supporters.
- Dlamini-Zuma will benefit from the ‘logical capabilities’ of the Zuma-era – specifically vote buying, fake ANC members, shadow branches and political violence and intimidation. These tactics will play in securing a majority of the 4,500 ANC delegates at the conference.
- The Dlamini-Zuma faction believes that after the elective conference, all votes will return to the ANC for the 2019 national election. The faction does not appear concerned about the 2019 election at all.
- Because of the current structure of the ANC, Dlamini-Zuma is seen as the winner, with a 60% chance at victory.
According to Nomura, things may still change over the next 6 months as the succession battle opens up – and will get particularly interesting when cabinet ministers declare their support for candidates.
Eyes will be on finance minister Malusi Gigaba, especially, as this will give insight for investors to see where he stands.
The investment firm said that, unlike previous conferences, this elective conference will be purely factional, and there will be little to no room for neutrality.
With a likely Dlamini-Zuma win, president Jacob Zuma will probably step down as soon as possible, giving her room to address the nation during SONA 2018, and approach the May 2019 elections as a sitting president, it said.
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