Secret vote has left Zuma in a much stronger position: analyst
Despite Tuesday’s secret ballot vote exposing the deep divisions within the ANC, the end result has left president Jacob Zuma in a much stronger position, says research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto.
Many political analysts and investors are reading the situation rather optimistically, despite president Zuma surviving. The line of thinking follows that 35 ANC MPs breaking ranks is unprecedented, and surely sounds the death knell of majority ANC rule in South Africa.
Attard Montalto agrees that the result of the secret vote has left the ANC in a much weaker position for the 2019 elections, but said it is a mistake to think that this makes Zuma any weaker. Notably, he said that the outcome did not reveal any ‘deep divisions’ that were not already known.
“He crossed the highest bar – which is to see down a motion of no confidence, under a secret ballot that allows MPs to vote whichever way they want in private, without party bosses knowing, and with some 15 or so members missing from his own caucus,” he said.
“We think this shows President Zuma’s ultimate political strength – being able to turn the ANC’s own processes and collectivism inwards onto itself for his own personal (factional) advantage, even when the odds are stacked against him.”
On Monday the rand rallied after the parliamentary speaker allowed a secret ballot in the opposition-sponsored no-confidence vote against the president. However, on Tuesday evening after Zuma survived the vote, the rand gave up all its earlier gains, sliding to a near a one-month low.
The analyst said that Zuma post-vote will be viewed too much “through the eyes of the media” and the public and foreign reactions, forgetting that the ANC’s internal politics – which will ultimately determine the outcome of the December elective conference – operates independently to that.
The secret ballot vote in the motion of no confidence was the opposition’s best chance to oust the president, and the outcome means that they are unlikely to mount further attempts, Attard Montalto said. The analyst said that the most likely outcome to the December conference was a win for the Zuma faction, whose top candidate – for now – remains Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
“As such, Zuma has a clean run until we see him stand down in H1 2018 at the behest of his own side, to allow his successor to campaign into the 2019 election,” he said.
The 2019 election is another story, however.
The outcome of the secret vote has linked Zuma and the ANC even closer together in the minds of the South African people, and will have an impact on the National Elections – which is now even more in the balance for the ANC, Attard Montalto said.
“What is clear is that, if the election were held now, the ANC would lose, in our view (i.e., fall below 50%),” he said.
“The question of 2019 is more how much a new leader after December can reclaim lost ground to scrape in above 50%.”
Read: Secret ballot “shock” may be all part of Zuma’s plan: analyst
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