Secret ballot “shock” may be all part of Zuma’s plan: analyst
Analysts and investors were shocked by Speaker of the National Assembly, Baleka Mbete’s decision to hold Tuesday’s motion of no confidence vote against president Jacob Zuma by way of secret ballot – however sentiment remains that the motion will fail.
In a late update to investors on Monday evening, research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto said the move was an “unnecessary risk” by Mbete, and may have been part of a greater plan by president Zuma and his supporters.
“The assumption was that a deeply dissatisfied ANC caucus in parliament could only really be handled with an open ballot and so that is what will be offered,” he said.
“However, the fact we are going down this road suggests Ms Mbete may have received a strategic ‘sign-off’ from president Zuma to go for this more risky but politically more valuable route.”
According to Attard Montalto, winning in a secret ballot for president Zuma, if indeed he believes he can have full control over the process, would provide strength and momentum into December. It also prevents further court action and gets the whole issue out of the way.
On the flip-side, a secret vote carries with it unpredictability and may take matters somewhat out of the president’s control, he said – which is why public sentiment is more positive and optimistic, and even Nomura has a “relatively high” probability rating of 30% that the motion will succeed.
For the motion to succeed, a straight majority of 201 votes will be needed, which means at the very least, the opposition parties need 50 ANC MPs to vote with them. Balancing the smaller parties abstentions or support for the ANC, this is more realistically pegged at 60 ANC votes.
Attard Montalto believes this is an unlikely outcome. He said that a simple majority will probably happen (majority of votes cast), but only about 10 ANC MPs are expected to vote with the opposition, while as many as 60 are expected to abstain.
Underpinning this view is the belief that the secret ballot won’t be secret.
“We believe a secret ballot will not be totally secret – there will be continual scrutiny of ANC MPs by caucus leadership and security services,” the analyst said.
“We believe anti-Zuma ANC MPs are afraid of being unable to conceal their votes from president Zuma. On top of this we think there will be attempts to keep anti-Zuma MPs from attending and intimidation and other forms of pressure.”
Other issues, that Attard Montalto says the market and South Africans at large are ignoring, include the fact that the ANC has no back-up plan if the motion succeeds, which would plunge the country’s political sphere into chaos.
There is also a leadership vacuum in the party, with no clear line of succession.
“We would expect a very strong positive reaction in South African asset prices tomorrow if the vote passes, but after that we may be into a period of much more extreme volatility,” Attard Montalto said.
Read: Zuma no confidence vote will fail whether it’s secret or not: analysts
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