Tablet market under pressure from wearable devices?
Amid growing competition from larger smartphones and the prospect of new categories such as wearable devices, International Data Corporation (IDC) has modestly lowered its tablet forecast for 2013 and beyond.
The company through its Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker expects worldwide tablet shipments to reach 227.4 million units in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 229.3 million but still 57.7% above 2012 shipments.
The IDC notes that the market will continue to grow at a rapid pace and by 2017, it expects global shipments to be nearly 407 million units.
The company also adjusted its regional outlook, with maturing markets such as the US now expected to cede share more rapidly to emerging markets such as Asia/Pacific.
“A lower than anticipated second quarter, hampered by a lack of major product announcements, means the second half of the year now becomes even more critical for a tablet market that has traditionally seen its highest shipment volume occur during the holiday season,” said Tom Mainelli, research director, tablets.
“We expect average selling prices to continue to compress as more mainstream vendors utilize low-cost components to better compete with the whitebox tablet vendors that continue to enjoy widespread traction in the market despite typically offering lower-quality products and poorer customer experiences,” Mainelli said.
While mature markets such as North America and Western Europe have driven much of the tablet market’s growth to date, IDC expects shipment growth to begin to slow in these markets.
Market saturation, increased adoption of smartphones with 5-inch and greater screens, and the eventual growth of the wearable category will impact tablet growth in all regions, but are likely to impact mature regions first.
As a result, IDC said it expects the mature market including North America, Western Europe, and Japan, to shrink from 60.8% of the global market in 2012 to 49% by 2017.
Emerging markets meanwhile, made up broadly of Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is set to hit 51% in 2017, from 39.2% in 2012.
“Year-on-year growth is beginning to slow as the tablet market approaches early stages of maturity,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker.
“Much of the long-term growth will be driven by countries like China where projected growth rates will be consistently higher than the worldwide average.”
A secondary trend in the tablet market is the rise of tablets in the commercial segment, IDC said.
The group said that education projects and adoption in vertical markets such as retail are contributing factors as this segment is set to slowly double from the 10% share it held in 2012 to 20% by 2017.
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