Former World Trade Organisation official sends a warning to South Africa
South Africa has been warned that it is dangerously close to being priced out of the world’s largest market unless Pretoria begins to take US objections seriously.
Trade expert and former senior WTO official Johann Human cautioned that if it fails to do so, the consequences for South African exporters and workers could be devastating.
South Africa will have to face a 30% increase in tariffs across the board, Human explained, referring to the tariff changes expected from 1 August.
“That’s in addition to sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminium, which have already doubled from 25% to 50%, and now even include consumer goods like fridges and stoves.”
He said the US has made it clear that these duties are part of a broad, aggressive trade strategy, with South Africa named among 20 countries to be hit first.
Making things worse is that South Africa could face even harsher penalties because of its alignment with BRICS.
Human said there is talk of an additional 10% tariff for BRICS members, which would push South Africa’s total tariff burden to 40%.
“It hasn’t been officially implemented, but it’s being held over our heads as a clear threat. And this is before any punitive measures related to perceived support for Russia, which could also come into play,” he said.
Human also made it clear that the tariff threat is real and imminent. He added that there is no chance that these tariffs won’t be implemented. “Pretoria should have no illusions; the US is deadly serious.”
Beyond tariffs, Human pointed out that South Africa faces serious challenges in non-tariff barriers and regulatory or policy hurdles that the US deems unfair trade practices.
“These can include sanitary standards, local content rules, and even black economic empowerment (BEE) policies,” he said.
“In the latest US National Trade Estimate Report, the section on South Africa lists almost exclusively non-tariff barriers. This is not new, and the US has been raising these issues for years.”
He noted that, despite repeated warnings, South Africa seems unprepared. “Has South Africa done its homework on these non-tariff barriers? I don’t think so.”
“The public hasn’t been informed. The government keeps saying the US figures are wrong, but that’s not a strategy. That’s denial,” he said.
Pretoria needs to engage Washington now
According to Human, these issues matter because they make South African goods less competitive.
“If you have non-tariff barriers that protect your local industry, but your exports face similar or worse barriers overseas, you lose.
“That’s why it’s critical to develop internationally agreed standards, so that these measures don’t become just another form of protectionism.”
Asked whether there are alternative export markets that could soften the blow, Human was doubtful.
“I think South Africa must sharpen the pencil and engage very actively with the US. There are some issues we can probably fix; others will be harder. But we can’t sit back.”
He added that South Africa has sent the wrong message by not prioritising its diplomatic presence in Washington.
“Our ambassador left shortly after arriving. No replacement has been appointed. That tells Washington we’re not serious about the relationship.”
He also warned that if South Africa doesn’t act now, it will fall behind in the queue as more countries race to strike trade deals with the US.
“Trump has said he wants 90 bilateral trade deals in 90 days. He’s already signed with Vietnam and Indonesia. He’s giving them preferential access. We’re sitting on the sidelines.”
Other countries are already taking action to protect themselves. Human highlighted Canada’s move to introduce a complex system of quotas and extra duties on steel to guard against Chinese dumping.
“Canada’s not waiting around. They’re moving fast. We need to be asking whether South Africa has the legislative and institutional tools to respond just as quickly.”
“If we don’t act, if we don’t negotiate, and if we don’t address both tariffs and non-tariff issues, we will be priced out of the US market. That’s our biggest market. And the impact on employment in South Africa will be severe,” Human warned.
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