Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for November

Staff Writer

 ·15 Oct 2025

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to fuel price cuts across the board in November, despite the recent weakening of the rand.

After starting the month on the front foot, petrol prices have recovered further over the past two weeks, while diesel has firmed its positive momentum.

Petrol prices are showing a strong over-recovery in prices of between 58 and 61 cents per litre, putting drivers in line for a sizeable cut.

Diesel prices are also showing an over-recovery, albeit smaller, at around 26 cents per litre.

Notably, both the rand/dollar exchange rate and the shift in global petroleum product prices are contributing to the over-recovery.

This is in contrast to September, where the global price of oil and market dynamics in that sector undercut the rand’s relative strength against the dollar.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 61 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 58 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 26 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 26 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 12 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for November.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Rand volatility

The rand has continued its resilience against the dollar over the past few months, surprising markets in the face of tense trade relations and the imposition of higher tariffs.

While the rand appears to be strong, economists have noted that the local unit is actually flat when looking at its trades against other major currencies.

The real drive behind the rand’s strength has been the US dollar’s weakness, with the greenback depreciating around 13% this year.

This means that the rand/dollar exchange remains highly sensitive to moves in the US economy—something that has been reflected this week.

The rand has had a great October, even pushing towards R17.00/$ at some point. But this reversed slightly as the US government shut down, and local data pointed to strained industries.

Most recently, the rand showed some strength again as the US Fed pointed to more interest rate cuts in the world’s biggest economy, all the while being bolstered by commodities like gold, which lifted in price.

Reflecting the rand’s sensitivity to the US market, the rand has been trading in a wide range, dipping as low as R17.07/$ and climbing as high as R17.50/$.

Looking ahead, analysts have noted that with gold and platinum prices surging higher and South Africa’s terms of trade as strong as ever, there is a high probability that the rand will regain its footing.

This means trading stronger in the coming weeks, or even attempting another push to cross the R17.00/$ level.

Oil prices fall

A big turn for local fuel price recoveries has been the declining price of oil, which has been on a slow downward trajectory, despite trading in a tight range.

At the start of the month, oil dipped below $65 a barrel and has since continued to drop, currently trading at around $62.40.

The drop in oil has come amid escalating trade tensions between China and the US, which diminished demand for risky assets.

This is happening alongside estimates from the International Energy Agency of a record crude surplus.

The IEA increased its forecast for an unprecedented oversupply of oil for 2026, noting that worldwide crude supplies will exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year.

The projected supply surplus is up roughly 18% from last month’s estimate, as the OPEC+ alliance continues to revive output and the outlook for the group’s rivals strengthens.

Several executives from major oil trading houses said they see crude prices falling from here, Bloomberg reported.

Adding to the mix, indications from the US Fed reinforced speculation that the US is on track to cut rates in October amid a weakening labour market, also impacting forecasts.

Oil already posted losses in August and September, and while the impact on local recoveries was mixed over this period, the projection for November appears to point to declines.

This is how the price changes are expected to change (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):