Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for December

Staff Writer

 ·14 Nov 2025

Despite a strong flex from the rand versus the US dollar following a positive budget review this week, motorists in South Africa are in for some pain at the pumps in December.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol and diesel prices in the country are showing negative recoveries, pointing to hikes on the way.

This is mainly being driven by higher global oil prices, which are trending upwards relative to October, thanks to US sanction pressure on Russian oil.

While the stronger rand is undercutting this, it needs to be sustained over a longer period to have a greater impact—and the rally is already showing signs of retreating.

As a result, motorists are currently lined up for a hike of 14-19 cents per litre for petrol in December, with diesel bearing the brunt of the imbalance, looking at a hike of 68 to 82 cents per litre.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: increase of 14 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 19 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 68 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 82 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 73 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for December.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects the current market trends for the first half of the month.

Rand strengthens

Following an optimistic and credible medium-term budget review this week, the rand hit three-year highs against the dollar, even pushing past the R17/$ resistance level briefly in trade.

While the currency has pulled back to around R17.10 to the dollar on Friday, it is still trading at resilient levels, especially when compared to the previous month.

However, as the rand is still trading in a tight range, it would have to maintain its current levels over a longer period to balance out the recoveries in fuel prices.

With the average starting to pull slightly lower relative to October, the rand/dollar exchange is contributing to a small over-recovery in fuel pricing of around 1 cent per litre.

If the stronger trade is maintained for the rest of the month, this will likely increase the over-recovery, helping to undercut the negative recoveries due to rising oil prices.

Oil prices rise

Oil prices are trading higher on average relative to October, leading to a marked under-recovery in local fuel pricing.

For diesel, where seasonal usage in the northern hemisphere and different supply levels tilt the scales, the under-recovery is more pronounced at between 69 and 84 cents per litre.

At $64 a barrel, oil prices are much higher than the sub-$60 a barrel level seen in the first half of October, mainly driven upwards by supply concerns from US pressure on Russia.

The Trump administration in the US has moved to raise the pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, including sanctions on Russian oil.

With days to go until sanctions fully kick in, markets have turned slightly bearish on supply, with other indications also pointing to resilient consumption.

That said, the prevailing market view is still for a glut or oversupply of oil in the market going into 2026, with oil producers (OPEC) increasing production.

Analysts have noted that there appears to be more oil coming in than can be consumed by current demand, but the sanctions on Russia do pose a significant threat to supply, which is reflected in current pricing.

For South Africa, which imports oil and petroleum products, that means lower recoveries and higher prices at the pumps.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):