Energy

Petrol prices 20 cents away from R30 per litre in October

Staff Writer

 ·23 Sep 2026

Fuel price recoveries have pushed even deeper into the red by the end of the third week of September, but motorists should catch a small break before the month’s end.

This is thanks to a slight pullback in global oil prices, while the rand maintains its relatively resilient position against the US dollar.

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol and diesel price recoveries have continued to deteriorate.

Petrol prices are now deep in the red, with an under-recovery of between R2.71 and R2.88 per litre.

Diesel price under-recoveries have also worsened, now at R2.60 and R3.00 per litre.

This puts fuel prices for October squarely on the path to hit new all-time highs in South Africa.

Depending on slate levy adjustments, petrol prices could also surpass the R30-per-litre mark, with current recoveries only 20 cents per litre away.

These are the projected adjustments based on the latest recoveries:

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.71 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R2.88 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.60 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.00 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R3.15 per litre

The table below outlines the escalating price changes this year.

The price hikes are being driven by higher global oil prices, which have been higher than $100 a barrel for most of the month.

While a stronger rand against the dollar had been offsetting this by about 15 cents per litre, this grace was halved in recent weeks as the rand weakened.

Fuel price recoveries have thus been under pressure on both ends, leading to the significant under-recovery that is now all but guaranteed to push pump prices to record highs next month.

However, according to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, a late turn in global oil prices should at least bring the under-recovery down a bit.

On Wednesday (23 September), oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks, now trading at $99 a barrel.

While not the breakthrough markets want, the turn is a positive one for energy prices.

The drop comes as Saudi Arabia moved to restart a key pipeline and the US flagged progress in talks with Iran to end the war in the Middle East.

Bishop noted this week that while fuel prices are still expected to rise sharply in October, the increase could be slightly lower as the oil supply crisis eases.

On the political side, US President Trump has also said he is now in a “declining mode” on attacks on Iran, while hopes of talks between the US and Iran have increased at this week’s UN meeting, she said.

The rub to these positive signs is that nothing is certain or guaranteed with the war or the Trump Administration.

A move towards peace in June, after a memorandum of understanding was signed by the US and Iran, collapsed just weeks later.

Bishop said the situation remains volatile, but markets are focusing on oil flows and, as a result, on inflation and interest rate effects.

To this end, the weaker rand, at R16.26 to the dollar, is coming ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s interest rate announcement, where markets anticipate a 25 bp hike.