Energy

South Africa bracing for disaster next week

Staff Writer

 ·2 Oct 2026

South Africans will face record-high petrol and diesel prices next week, with month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) all but guaranteeing over R30/litre at the pumps.

The October price review window has closed, with steep under-recoveries for both fuel types.

Petrol prices have ended at an under-recovery of R3.08 per litre for Petrol 93 and R3.29 per litre for Petrol 95—the latter likely to hit R30.21 per litre barring any other adjustments.

Diesel prices are worse off, with 0.05% sulphur diesel set for a wholesale price increase of R2.80 per litre, and 0.005% sulphur diesel at R3.19 per litre.

The DMPR will announce the official fuel price adjustments ahead of the changes taking effect next Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

The projections below are indicative, not final; the official price changes incorporate other adjustments, such as the slate levy, which could increase or lower the final amount.

These are the projections for next week:

• Petrol 93: increase of R3.08 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R3.29 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.80 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.19 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R3.57 per litre

Fuel price recoveries have been battered on both sides of the equation this month, with the small over-recovery from the rand/dollar exchange evaporating by month-end.

According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, the rand has returned to its more characteristic volatility as global markets digest higher oil prices, higher inflation, and higher interest rates.

“The rand saw noticeable volatility, dropping below R16.00/USD early in the month before the escalation in the Middle East war, then rising to around R16.40/USD on the US interest rate hike with concerns over energy prices and inflationary impacts,” she said.

She noted that weak global fiscal metrics have seen a more marked reaction to higher interest rates than at other times, with investors visibly risk-averse.

However, the relatively modest nature of foreign sales of South African debt has limited the rand’s weakness, she added.

Rand weakness was also initially halted by the South African interest rate hike following the US FOMC move, but it has since moved towards R16.70/$.

The weakened rand has crushed the over-recovery in fuel prices from around 15 cents per litre at the start of the month to zero at month-end.

This leaves the coming hike completely at the whims of global oil prices, which have remained high throughout.

Too little, too late

In a turn for oil, global prices pulled below $100 a barrel on Friday (2 October) as France proposed that developed nations release strategic reserves to ease surging prices at the pump.

France proposed that countries across the continent and member nations of the International Energy Agency release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude.

However, prices remain elevated, and the slight relief from the proposal comes too late to have any meaningful bearing on fuel recoveries for October’s adjustments.

Oil prices have remained far from their early-war peaks as transits through the vital Strait of Hormuz have continued.

Despite this, prices are high, and fuel shortages are rising.

Shortages are bolstering crude demand as refineries try to churn out as many barrels as they can, just as demand rises ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Making matters more difficult, Chinese exporters have also cancelled some oil-product cargoes slated for export in October, as Asia’s top consumer prioritises domestic supply.

Russia, meanwhile, has further extended a ban on most diesel exports through October.

This means the pricing outlook heading into the final quarter of the year is not positive, with record-high prices expected next week setting a worrying baseline for the months ahead.

With Bloomberg