Energy

Good news gets better for petrol prices in South Africa next week

Staff Writer

 ·30 Oct 2026

Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund show continued improvement in fuel price recoveries, which, when combined with the National Treasury’s tax relief, will lead to a larger cut at the pumps next week.

According to the CEF’s final data release for October, petrol and diesel price recoveries are still deep in the red.

Petrol prices are showing an under-recovery of R1.01 and R1.17 per litre for 93 and 95, respectively.

Meanwhile, diesel is showing an under-recovery of R1.32 and R1.42 per litre for 0.005% and 0.05%, respectively.

Typically, these under-recoveries would point to petrol and diesel price hikes for November, which was the expectation for most of the month.

However, in the Medium-Term Budget (MTBPS), the National Treasury announced a R10 billion relief package that would see fuel taxes cut by R1.50 and R3.00 per litre for petrol and diesel in November.

At current recovery levels, this will completely reverse the hike and deliver a cut in petrol prices, which have only grown since the announcement.

The picture for diesel has deteriorated somewhat, but thanks to the much larger tax cut for diesel compared to petrol, relief at the pumps is still all but assured.

The only real caveat to the data is that the recovery spot pricing and fuel tax cuts do not factor in other adjustments, such as the slate levy.

The slate levy was increased to 87.6 cents per litre in October (+4.4 cpl) due to a cumulative negative slate balance of R10.456 billion recorded at the end of August 2026.

If the negative balance continues to climb, the slate levy will expand further, undermining the positive impact of the other factors at play.

The official announcement of the changes will take place in the coming days, with the adjustments set to take effect on election day, Wednesday, 4 November.

The table below outlines how prices could be adjusted:

Markets are still not on your side

The downside of the data is that the expected price cuts at the pumps are entirely propped up by the government’s intervention.

This intervention is temporary and will be phased out by January 2027.

Overall, the reality of global markets is that the energy crisis is still in full swing, with oil prices sitting above $111 a barrel, and the rand/dollar exchange putting the local unit on the back foot.

Oil markets are not only under pressure from the war in the Middle East, but also from the Northern Hemisphere entering its winter months, where demand for oil ramps up significantly.

Prices rose this week amid signs the United States may resume military strikes against Iran, risking fresh turbulence in the region that could disrupt energy flows.

Regional risks were in focus again after two separate tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the main chokepoint in the war.

Elsewhere, the war between Russia and Ukraine also kept pressure on markets, with energy infrastructure being targeted.

South Africa is an importer of energy and fuel, and is severely impacted by the higher prices.

Meanwhile, the rand has buckled against the dollar, as global uncertainty pushed investors into risk-off trades while gold prices—a major South African export—dropped.

This pushed the rand to around R16.60/$, weaker than the R16.20/$ region it had stuck to previously.

Despite a well-received Medium-Term Budget, markets are now waiting for the next round of economic data, as well as the outcome of the United States’s decision on whether to keep the country in AGOA.

The decision is expected next week, ahead of South Africa’s local government elections.

Even with the relief expected at the pumps next week, the reality is that prices are still much higher, costing households and businesses more to survive.

Since the onset of the US-Iran war, petrol prices have increased by more than R10 per litre and diesel by almost R15 per litre.

While November’s expected cuts will reduce this, it’s nowhere near enough to neutralise the impact.