Another disaster for South Africa

Economists have raised the alarm that South Africa could be facing sanctions from the United States as diplomatic and foreign policy tensions continue to escalate.

The latest fallout relates to an article penned by president Cyril Ramaphosa and other leaders in Foreign Policy, in which the president painted a picture of growing discontent within South Africa toward the United States.

While the focus of the article was on Israel’s war in Gaza, it took aim at US President Donald Trump and America’s role in the conflict.

It stated, in no uncertain terms, that South Africa would heed the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and would block Israeli vessels carrying military supplies from the country’s ports.

This stands in stark contrast to South Africa’s previous handling of ICC arrest warrants—where it infamously failed to arrest Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, citing diplomatic immunity.

According to Aluma Capital chief economist Frederick Mitchell, the article has not been well-received by the United States and now poses severe implications for the future of US-South Africa relations.

Mitchell said it “raises the spectre” of targetted financial sanctions against South African leadership, including Ramaphosa and figures within the African National Congress (ANC).

“While critiques of US policy are not new, the virulence of this article has reportedly prompted strong responses from American officials who view it as a betrayal of the long-standing partnership between the two nations,” he said.

The article’s impact has already started reverberating through the country, with the United States scrapping contributions to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) after the article was published.

Mitchell said that this was an alarming development that would have dire consequences for millions of people who rely on critical services funded through the relief.

However, the economist warned that it may not end there.

He said that this shows a willingness by the United States to imposed targetted financial sanctions on the country, which could be extended to individuals it sees as undermining diplomatic relations.

“If President Ramaphosa and wealthy ANC cadres face financial restrictions, it could destabilize their political standing and exacerbate domestic tensions,” he said.

“Such sanctions may also deter foreign investment, exacerbating the economic challenges facing South Africa.”

Seismic shift

The other risk is that the fallout of this international relations disaster will shift the political landscape locally.

Mitchell said that the ANC’s opponents are likely to capitalize on any resultant crisis—be it diplomatic, social, or economic—to highlight the issues with the once-leading party.

This would highlight decades of corruption and inefficiency, failure to reform, policy missteps and economic and social failures like the persistently high unemployment rate.

“The perception that the governing party is alienating a vital ally like the United States may lead to a realignment of public sentiment against the ANC in the medium term at least,” Mitchell said.

It could also lead to a big shift in who South Africa considers its allies.

In lieu of the United States, the country may look to other global partners, potentially deepening ties with countries like Russia or China, further dismantling its stated ‘neutral’ stance on the global political stage.

Mitchell said that, while it is essential for any nation to defend its sovereignty and express its viewpoints, “the consequences of inflammatory rhetoric and actions must be weighed against the strategic relationships that are pivotal for national development”.

“The recent article and its aftermath serve as a cautionary tale about the fragility of international relations and the intricate dance between diplomacy and national interest,” he said.

He said that, instead of alienating its vital allies, South Africa’s leadership should focus on fostering positive relationships that support national interests and the well-being of its citizens.