South Africa doesn’t need nuclear – it needs better energy management: expert
Energy expert Chris Yelland says that South Africa doesn’t have an energy crisis, it has a management crisis – as government’s multi-billion rand nuclear plans are outdated in an environment that has changed significantly since 2010.
Energy minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson recently announced that request for proposals to build nuclear power plants to add 9600MW to the national grid would move forward on 30 September 2016.
The nuclear build has been a major point of contention among stakeholders, with reports of underhanded dealings with Russia, and speculated costs of over R1 trillion – a bill South Africa can simply not afford.
Yelland said that the entire nuclear build is a mistake, and based off old data. According to the expert, the South African government is working off data from 2010, when the country was in dire energy straits.
This subsequently led to a ‘scatter-shot’ approach to sourcing energy, with a multitude of projects being developed to meet the growing need for electricity.
Since 2011, Yelland said, the energy demand picture has changed, with a significant drop in demand – below even ‘low growth’ projections – reflecting a slowing global market, and a move to lower energy intensity.
Yelland also said that 2015’s power crisis which reintroduced load shedding wasn’t due to a lack of capacity, but was rather due to poor management and maintenance from Eskom.
Things have since improved, however, with Eskom bringing 4000MW back online – while other energy sources (solar, wind and hydro power) have been introduced to reduce reliance on Eskom.
With all these changes, South Africa could have a massive energy surplus by the time the nuclear project is complete.
“Government cannot forecast correctly for five years, let alone 50. If SA moves to nuclear newbuild, it is committing to one vendor for 9600MW, based on 2010 estimates, which are clearly wrong,” he said.
“SA does not have an energy crisis, it has a management crisis,” he said.
More on nuclear
Nuclear plans will push South Africa to R3 trillion in debt: Outa
SA has not entered into a nuclear deal with any country: Ramaphosa
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