Variable international oil prices, and an equally unpredictable rand/US dollar exchange rate, have combined to provide a mixed picture for fuel prices in June, the Automobile Association (AA) said in a statement on Tuesday (28 May).
“International oil prices have been up and down in May. The basic petrol price has traded between 740 and 780 cents a litre, which averages out 19 cents lower for the month,” the association said.
The rand was also variable, although it traded in a fairly restricted range between roughly R14.15 and R14.60 to the US dollar, it added.
“The rand was about 12 cents weaker over the month,” the AA said.
“This means that petrol prices will still drop by about 10 cents a litre. However, the basic diesel price increased slightly, by two cents a litre, so diesel users are looking at an increase of about 14 cents a litre, with a nine cent hike for illuminating paraffin.”
However, the AA said that the overall picture may look a little difference with the introduction of the Carbon Tax in June. This will add nine cents per litre to the petrol price, and 10 cents to the diesel price.
“In effect this means that petrol will decrease by only one cent a litre, while diesel will increase more significantly by around 24 cents a litre,” it said.
The AA said that any number of current issues could impact the fuel price in the second half of the year, and advises against relying on fuel price stability in the short to medium term.
“We suspect there may be more economic storms ahead,” it said.
The table below outlines the expected changes based on the current data from the Central Energy Fund.
|Fuel (Inland)||May Official||Over/(under) recovery||Carbon tax||June Expected|
|0.05% Diesel (wholesale)||R14.88||(R0.14)||(R0.10)||R15.12|