South Africa warned of load shedding ‘beyond stage 6’ as winter approaches
The newly appointed electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has made it abundantly clear that load shedding is expected to worsen when South Africa enters its winter months.
Speaking at the site of collapsed electricity pylons in Pretoria, the minister said that the upcoming winter is going to be “exceptionally difficult” in terms of load shedding, especially at the rate of current trips and failures, reported EWN.
“I’ll be brutally honest. It’s going to be an exceptionally difficult winter. We know that in summer conditions, the deficit is 6,000 megawatts. When we go into winter, the peak can go up to 37,000 megawatts,” the minister said.
He added that his department, in collaboration with Eskom, is doing everything it can to avoid the worst-case scenario of stages beyond stage 6 load shedding.
Ramokgopa’s comments echo his previous statements, including those made last week (6 April) in a detailed presentation following an extended analysis of the country’s coal power stations.
The minister said that in the winter months, there is an energy deficit of up to 10,000MW – equivalent to stage 10 load shedding.
According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), it is up to Eskom and the government to initiate urgent maintenance on current power fleets and bring more capacity online to the national grid before the winter month kick in.
If the necessary measures are not taken, there will be an increase in demand during winter, as usual, which will lead Eskom to implement more severe load shedding stages in order to prevent a grid collapse.
The colder climates push up the demand for electricity due to more people wishing to warm their homes.
Winter in South Africa stretches between the start of June and the end of August. According to the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, average temperatures in winter can carry drastically between -2 degrees Celsius to 26 degrees Celsius.
Compared to winters across the globe, this is relatively high; however, cold fronts resulting from heavy snow on mountains in the Northern Cape, Kwa-Zulu Natal and the Western Cape can spread across the country – driving down temperatures.
Despite the City of Cape Town being able to stave off higher levels of load shedding thanks to its 180MW Steenbras pumped-storage dam, the city has noted that colder temperatures increase electricity demand, and it is in the best interest of the region to maintain its lower stages if unnecessary appliances are switched off.
In late March, Western Cape premier Alan Winde said that work on the country’s sole nuclear power station needs to be completed before winter arrives.
The Koeberg plant north of Cape Town is running weeks late in its maintenance schedule, adding to the ever-worsening generation supply.
On Wednesday (12 April), Eskom announced all-day stage 5 load shedding following a short Easter period of some relief from rolling blackouts.
The minister of electricity said that unreliability at power units remains one of the biggest concerns for a stable electricity supply in the country.
He added that this could be seen by the fact that with less than 48 hours, the country can go from no load shedding to stage five.
On top of growing concerns for stable electricity, consumers in South Africa will be expected to fork out more each month for the small amount of electricity they have access to.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has proposed a 15.1% hike in electricity prices for municipal customers from 1 July 2023 onwards.
This move comes after Nersa approved an 18.65% price hike for standard tariff customers effective from 1 April and a bulk supply tariff increase of 18.49% announced for municipal customers last month.
A portion of these municipal electricity price hikes will ultimately land on the shoulders of already cash-strapped consumers.
Dawie Roodt, the chief economist for Efficient Group, said that the upcoming hike would drive up inflation in the country and possibly slow down the South African Reserve Bank’s efforts to continue hiking rates as more households take up credit to make ends meet.
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