Load shedding ‘horror show’ is coming: experts

The plans proposed by electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa to curb load shedding are going nowhere fast, experts say – and South Africa is steadily marching into a winter “horror show” as a result.

The electricity minister presented a proposal to the ANC executive committee this past weekend, aiming to alleviate load shedding over the next six months by using emergency diesel generators, addressing critical issues at the five most problematic power stations, and exempting certain regions of the country from power outages.

The plan has secured backing from the party and its committees and is currently going through the motions and working through the government.

Over the longer term, Ramokgopa has floated a plan to extend the life of coal power stations and to slow down their decommissioning. This, too, has gained political support – although it has been met with wide criticism from the energy sector.

Speaking to SABC News this week, the chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) Hugo Pienaar said that the various initiatives proposed by Ramokgopa are simply the standard practice Eskom has been doing for years to mitigate load shedding going into the winter months.

Pienaar said that the minister’s plan to use diesel-run open-cycle gas turbines to supplement generation and cut maintenance when high demand is something the power utility has been doing for years.

The economist said it is frustrating that the government is portraying the plan as fresh without providing any new plans.

He added that the plans are also futile. In the short-term, there is very little that can be done to give instant relief. Load shedding will only likely improve when private generation and developments at Koeberg and Kusile are completed next year, he said.

The maintenance problem at Eskom has been going on for years and is a result of the government’s directive to “keep the lights on” regardless of the power utility’s circumstances.

“It’s like a vehicle; if you don’t service it, it will continue until it breaks down,” said the economist.

Horror show

Pienaar’s views were echoed by energy expert Tshepo Kgadmina, who said there is no practical plan to address load shedding in the near term.

Kgadmina added that, without legislative powers, Ramokgopa’s plans wouldn’t go anywhere, and he is currently a “glorified public relations officer”.

He said South Africa was heading for a “horror show” this winter.

“It is a horror show that they are considering curtailing maintenance going into the winter months,” he said, adding that the grid has not been stress-tested for such high levels of load shedding.

The constant switching on and switching off is causing severe damage across the network, running into the billions of rands.

Winter in South Africa is expected to be extremely tough, with rolling blackouts predicted to reach record levels as demand skyrockets and supply comes under severe strain.

Earlier this month, Ramokgopa said that winter demand is likely to spike up to 37,000MW, while Eskom can only produce around 27,000MW. This would create an energy shortfall of 10,000MW – or equivalent to stage 10 load shedding.

However, in recent weeks, Eskom has been unable to reliably hit even 27,000MW, often falling below 25,000MW, extending the potential shortfall even further. Without significant interventions on both the demand and supply side, higher stages of load shedding are unavoidable.

Nothing happening

Kgadmina and Pienaar are not alone in their views and are adding to growing concerns raised among business leaders, analysts and economists.

Energy expert Hilton Trollip said last week that Ramokgopa’s plans are rehashed and that without legislative powers, he is simply a “politically-appointed CEO” at Eskom.

“If you look at what’s actually been done – nothing. (Just) talk talk talk,” Trollip said.

Trollip said that the Electricity Regulation Act grants Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe significant powers, indicating that Ramaokgopa lacks the authority to carry out his plans.

Currently, there is widespread ambiguity in Ramokgopa’s executive powers, resulting in tension among the three executives responsible for Eskom and its challenges.

In light of ‘politicking’, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been called on by the ANC secretary general to “do his job” and define the minister of electricity’s role.

Read: Eskom has a plan to cut load shedding – and it has already spared South Africa from stage 8