Eskom load-shedding warning

 ·18 Jul 2024

President Cyril Ramaphosa, Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane, and energy experts warned that load-shedding could return.

On Friday, Eskom celebrated 107 days of constant power supply, 73 of which fall in winter when demand is higher than normal.

The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged suspension of load-shedding was nearly four years ago, between 08 September 2020 and 11 December 2020.

This created a false impression that load-shedding was over and that Eskom’s electricity supply shortage had been resolved.

President Cyril Ramaphosa cautioned against this optimism, saying the electricity system remains finely balanced.

“Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load shedding,” Ramaphosa said.

He urged the new Government of National Unity (GNU) to continue reforming the electricity sector by increasing private participation.

Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also warned that Eskom can suffer setbacks, which could lead to load-shedding returning.

“We are still working on the reliability of these machines, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load-shedding is behind us,” he said.

Ramokgopa added that the view that load-shedding is over is a false claim that can’t be substantiated.

Former Reserve Bank deputy governor Kuben Naidoo warned that load-shedding will be reintroduced once the mining industry begins to ramp up production.

“I think half of the reason we don’t have load shedding is because the mining sector is in a deep recession,” Naidoo said.

“If you switch on the mining sector, load-shedding will return, so we still need to continue investing in renewable energy and other energy sources to break that constraint.”

Energy analyst Chris Yelland also expects load-shedding to return when a cold spell hits and electricity demand increases.

Yelland said that while the intensity and regularity of load-shedding may have significantly reduced, power cuts will still happen.

Another factor in reducing load-shedding is a warmer-than-usual winter and lower demand due to households and companies cutting their reliance on Eskom.

This is unlikely to last, as demand will ramp up during a cold snap and when big industries begin to grow their output again.

Eskom outlook

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said despite the significant improvement in recent months, they have not revised the forecast shared at the end of April.

Eskom predicted that there would be load-shedding during winter, but it would be limited to stage 2.

Marokane said that Eskom needs to stay below 14,000 MW of unplanned outages to reduce the intensity and frequency of load-shedding.

If unplanned outages increase to 15,000 MW, Eskom’s Winter load-shedding prediction will take effect, and the country will experience load-shedding again up to stage 2.

Eskom’s latest weekly system status report substantiates Marokane’s views about breakdowns, demand, and load-shedding.

The forecasted demand versus available generating capacity for each week for 52 weeks ahead paints a concerning picture.

The likely risk scenario shows that Eskom will have a shortfall of over 2,000 MW to meet demand and reserves.

Eskom uses colour codes ranging from green (no shortage) to red (worst case), indicating the absence or presence of a capacity constraint, as shown below:

  • Green – Adequate generation to meet demand and reserves.
  • Yellow – Smaller than 1,000 MW, possibly short to meet reserves.
  • Orange – 1,001 MW to 2,000 MW, definitely short to meet reserves and possibly demand.
  • Red – Over 2,001 MW short to meet demand and reserves.

The outlook over the next year, embedded below, shows that the likely risk scenario is red for most of the 52 weeks.

Show comments
Subscribe to our daily newsletter