Dark days ahead for South Africa

Energy experts warn that the recent load shedding reminded South Africa that rolling blackouts are still a threat and will likely return as Eskom’s generation capacity remains unreliable and unpredictable. 

Eskom was forced to implement Stage 6 load shedding on 23 February 2025 after multiple generating units failed, removing 6,000 megawatts from the grid. 

The crisis was primarily attributed to unexpected unit trips at Camden Power Station. Eskom eventually suspended load shedding on 26 February after recovering sufficient generation capacity and replenishing emergency reserves. 

However, energy consultancy EE Business Intelligence noted that this sudden escalation reinforced doubts about Eskom’s turnaround efforts.

EE Business Intelligence highlighted that Eskom’s public communications appeared to downplay the severity of the crisis before the rapid surge in power cuts. 

The firm noted that the abrupt loss of significant generating capacity—including 3,600 MW from Majuba, 800 MW from Medupi, and 800 MW from Camden—without warning cast doubt over the utility’s operational transparency. 

Some critics suggested that the recent high levels of load shedding were due to cloudy weather reducing renewable energy generation.

However, Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa dismissed these suggestions and pointed to deeper structural issues within Eskom. 

“While load shedding was later scaled down to Stage 4 and Stage 2 before being suspended, scepticism remains over Eskom’s ability to maintain any lasting improvements, particularly with the onset of winter when energy demand typically rises,” the firm said. 

Energy analyst Chris Yelland stressed that the return of Stage 6 load shedding once again highlighted the erratic and unreliable nature of South Africa’s coal-fired power generation. 

“At around 80%, there is far too much coal-fired power in our mix, which poses a significant risk to the economy,” Yelland said. 

He warned that unless Eskom addresses its fundamental issues, further power disruptions in South Africa are likely.

Load shedding will likely return

Robert Futter, executive director at Cresco, previously acknowledged that Eskom had so far managed the delicate balance between supply and demand relatively well.

This was done through various measures, including using diesel-powered peaking stations and load-curtailment agreements with large electricity consumers. However, he warned that these measures were not sustainable in the long term. 

“Many large users are on special contracts with Eskom, and for Eskom, that is probably the easiest way to balance the grid,” Futter said. 

He also expressed concern over the upcoming winter months, when demand typically increases while more generating capacity is taken offline for planned maintenance.

Futter compared Eskom’s ageing coal fleet to an old Land Rover Defender, saying that while such machines are built for endurance, they inevitably break down with continuous use. 

“We also just hope that these old power stations that have been brought back up and seem to be operating fairly well will continue to do so,” he said. 

However, he noted that increased breakdowns could lead to further bouts of load shedding sometime this year. 

He described the current energy situation as “more sensitive than at the end of last year” and warned that maintaining stability would be challenging.

Energy analyst Professor Hartmut Winkler echoed these concerns, stating that although the recent load shedding was surprising, South Africans should expect intermittent power cuts to continue. 

“We were very lucky over the last year that we went so long without load shedding,” Winkler said. 

He explained that Eskom had been “walking close to the line,” meaning that any unexpected disruption could easily trigger power cuts. 

His forecast suggests that intermittent load shedding could persist for another two to three years as Eskom struggles to stabilise its generation fleet.

A stark reminder of this vulnerability came on Sunday (2 March), when Eskom announced that the national grid remained under strain following the unexpected trip of Koeberg Unit 2. 

The nuclear reactor, which had been operating at full capacity, was forced offline due to an unplanned, non-technical incident. 

Although this did not immediately result in load shedding, Eskom acknowledged that the overall generation capacity remains constrained. 

The utility has maintained high levels of maintenance, averaging 7,032 MW in February, in an effort to improve fleet reliability ahead of winter. 

However, questions remain about whether these efforts will be sufficient to prevent further power disruptions.