Here is the expected petrol price for May

Amid global chaos in the markets, things are at least looking good for South African motorists as fuel price recoveries sit firmly in positive territory.

This is thanks to a much weaker global oil price and a turnaround in the rand/dollar exchange rate as a semblance of calm returns to trades.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows an over-recovery in both the petrol and diesel prices, with the former on track to come down by 15-18 cents per litre, and the latter around cents 38 per litre.

These are the projections at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 15 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 18 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 38 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 39 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 31 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for May.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

The recoveries are mainly influenced by the cost of international petroleum products, pinned to the oil price, and the rand/dollar exchange rate.

Both the rand/dollar exchange rate and oil prices showed big swings in the first half of April, pinned to the US trade war launched at the start of the month.

While oil prices tanked, leading to a significant over-recovery in prices, the rand came out much weaker due to other local factors—most notably, the impasse over the 2025 budget from within the Government of National Unity (GNU).

The weak rand significantly undercut the over-recovery from global oil—but the currency has since swung in the other direction, lowering its overall under-recovery.

Oil prices crash and burn

For May, oil prices are trading significantly lower due to the global tariff and trade war launched by US President Donald Trump at the start of the month.

Trump initiated a 25% tariff on automotive exports to the United States on 2 April. This was followed by a 10% global tariff on exports on 5 April. Both tariffs are still in effect.

A 11%-50% ‘reciprocal’ tariff was to kick in on 9 April, but these were put on hold for three months—except for China.

The trade war sparked recession fears in the United States, hitting oil futures hard. The US is the world’s largest economy and a recession would likely pave the way for a global recession.

This would have a significant impact on oil demand as production slows—also coming at a time that there is a glut of oil in the market.

Bloomberg analysis of the market shows that oil has dropped about $10 this month because of the trade war.

“Those concerns have led agencies to cut demand outlooks and analysts to slash price forecasts, with the possibility of a glut amplified by OPEC+’s surprise decision to bring back output more quickly than expected,” it said.

Rand swings wildly

Reflecting the general chaos on global markets, the rand also had a wild two weeks in April, crashing at the onset of Trump’s tariff war, and hitting all-time lows as the GNU came under threat.

While many economists attributed the rand’s significant weakness to the 30% tariff that was to kick on 9 April, others saw the biggest blow coming from rift in the GNU.

The rift was laid bare on 2 April when the Democratic Alliance—the second biggest party in the GNU—voted against the budget, pushing against the inclusion of the 0.5 percentage point hike in VAT.

The ANC-led GNU managed to pass the budget without the DA by courting smaller parties outside the coalition. Both the DA and ANC were of the view that the other had betrayed the terms of the GNU.

As it looked like the GNU was heading for a split, the rand crashed to its worst-ever levels, hitting R19.93/$, weighed down by internal and external problems.

However, by Monday (14 April), markets had calmed significantly.

The 30% tariff hanging over South Africa’s head was put on a 90-day “holiday”, and weekend negotiations between the ANC and DA left the GNU intact—for now.

Tensions are still present, and markets have now been burned by the coalition, so the rand has not pulled back to earlier levels.

However, the swing back to under R19/$, with room for more strength, has cut the contribution to an under-recovery, painting an overall better picture for fuel prices in May.

Expected petrol prices for May 2025

This is how the prices are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):