Stage 2 load shedding is back

Eskom has announced that stage 2 load shedding will be implemented on Thursday (24 April).

This comes despite significant progress in generation recovery efforts, the utility said.

Eskom said that is experiencing higher-than-expected electricity demand on top of the loss of generation units, and extensive planned maintenance.

This has placed strain on the system.

As a result, Stage 2 load shedding will be implemented from 16h00 on Thursday and will remain in effect until 05h00 on Friday (25 April).

“Given these ongoing constraints, we urge the public to use electricity sparingly to help reduce pressure on the grid,” Eskom said.

“Eskom sincerely apologises for the inconvenience and will continue to provide updates as necessary.”

Load shedding was last implemented on 19 March, following the loss of multiple generating units. Eskom also warned of the potential return of outages at the end of March, amid inclement weather.

South Africa is currently approaching winter, with severe storms and cold weather already hitting the country.

The winter months place significant demand on the national grid, exacerbating Eskom’s already narrow supply margins.

Energy experts have long warned South Africa to expect intermittent bouts of load shedding as the country continues to hobble along with its limited capacity and maintenance issues.

Energy analyst Professor Hartmut Winkler warned that Eskom has been “walking close to the line,” meaning that any unexpected disruption could easily trigger power cuts.

His forecasts suggest that intermittent load shedding could persist for another two to three years as Eskom struggles to stabilise its generation fleet.

In its most recent system update, Eskom noted that its maintenance levels are still high, covering 15.41% of generation capacity, while unplanned outages, for the financial year-to-date, stands at 27.48%.

Last week, the use of Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) stood at 10%, higher than the levels of 8% seen last year, but lower than the 30% seen earlier in April.

Winter load shedding warning

Many energy experts, including Chris Yelland and Anton Eberhard, have warned that South Africans should expect load shedding in winter.

Eberhard highlighted that Eskom’s energy availability factor averaged between 55% and 58% this year, which was way below the utility’s generation recovery plan.

From 1 to 17 April 2025, the year-to-date EAF stood at 56.63%, a far stretch from the promised levels of 70% by March 2025.

“Diesel-fired power stations’ use has peaked, and emergency plants have been running hard recently,” he said.

Eberhard hinted that this data showed that more load shedding and power cuts were on their way in South Africa.

Yelland also said Eskom’s lower-than-expected EAF raised concerns over load shedding during winter.

“If EAF does not significantly increase as demand increases with the onset of colder weather, we will likely experience some load shedding,” he said.

Eskom is expected to present its winter outlook soon, which will outline the expected levels of load shedding and various scenarios for the coming winter months.

The group’s last outlook for summer had broadly been met, but started falling apart from February.

The winter outlook should be published within the next week.