Here is the expected petrol price for June

South African motorists are in line for more petrol price relief in June, with mid-month data showing strong over-recoveries in pricing, paving the way for a cut.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to an over-recovery of about 30 cents per litre in petrol prices and around double that for diesel.

Should current market conditions persist for the remaining weeks of May, the means South Africans can expect a fourth consecutive cut in prices.

This is thanks to a strengthening rand and global oil prices remaining under pressure.

These are the projections at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 30 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of 30 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 60 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 61 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 63 cents per litre

The CEF does not present daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to give the expected price for June.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data does give a strong indication of where prices are headed, and things look positive for the coming month.

While the over-recovery contribution from lower oil prices has reduced — or even reversed in the case of 95 petrol — this has been counter-acted by a strenthening rand.

Rand is getting stronger

South Africa suffered severe rand weakeness in April due to the onset of US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the future of the Government of National Unity (GNU) being brought into question.

In May, both these factors have subsided significantly, boosting the rand.

Globally, the Trump administration has pulled back from many of the extreme acts of aggression on tariffs, especially against China.

While trade tensions persist, markets have taken a more subdued view on the saga, with a semblance of calm returning.

Investors who piled into safe-haven assets as uncertainty over global trade grew have returned to a risk-on position, boosting emerging market currencies like the rand.

The dollar, meanwhile, is softer on returning expectations of interest rate cuts this year, with analysts anticipating at least two cuts from the US Fed in the coming months..

Locally, the anxiety and uncertainty around the future of the GNU following a clash between the DA and ANC over the 2025 budget has mostly subsided.

The National Treasury is expected to table a third budget on 21 May, with reports indicating that, this time, it is likely to have internal support from GNU partners, including the DA.

Despite a reinforced commitment from parties to the GNU, markets are still assessing the situation with a degree of caution.

Particularly as rifts between the DA and ANC on various policy matters appear to be widening.

Nevertheless, the rand has regained a lot of its lost footing in April, pulling back from record highs of R19.93 to the dollar last month, to around R18.20 to the dollar in May.

Oil prices are climbing

Aligning with the wider economic outlook on the trade war, global oil markets have also reversed their position since April.

Following the onset of Trump’s trade war in early April, oil prices crashed below $60 a barrel as markets anticipated a global economic slowdown that would hit productivity.

This came at the same time as markets anticipated a glut in supply. Over-supply and weak demand spelled doom for oil prices.

However, as the Trump administration hit reverse on the worst of the tariffs and eased its aggression towards China, oil prices have recovered.

While still broadly weaker, trading under $70 a barrel, the currently levels of just over $64 a barrel are higher than in April.

According to Bloomberg analysis of the market, oil prices remain under pressure and trade will remain volatile as weaker demand is expected to persist.

Wild swings in US foreign policy are also leaving markets punch-drunk.

The latest is an apparent bout-turn from Trump, where in less than 24 hours, the narrative has shifted from the US imposing new sanctions on Iran to growing speculation that a diplomatic breakthrough may be within reach.

“If a deal is concluded, it would increase the likelihood of a significant oversupply later this year, especially when combined with the planned production increases from OPEC+,” analysts said.

Oil is still down by more than 14% this year, and US producers have said they expect little change in prices before the end of the year.

Increased flows from Iran would add to a potential glut later this year after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies last month began restoring supplies idled since 2022.

Expected petrol prices for June 2025

This is how the price changes will reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):