Energy

Here is the expected petrol price for March

Staff Writer

 ·16 Feb 2026

Mid-month data on fuel price recoveries show that it will be a close call for motorists in March, with petrol prices sitting on the cusp of an over- and under-recovery—and it could go either way.

After two consecutive months of fuel price cuts in January and February, March is lining up to be the first month of 2026 with recoveries in the red.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that both petrol and diesel price recoveries are negative.

Petrol prices are showing an underrecovery of a couple of cents per litre, while diesel’s underrecovery is much steeper at about 46 cents per litre.

With the rand and global oil prices relatively stable, if these conditions continue through to the end of the month, drivers will be slightly worse off.

However, if oil prices are driven lower—or the rand strengthens further—then at least petrol users could be saving a few cents per litre come March.

These are the projected levels at mid-month:

• Petrol 93: increase of 1 cent per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 2 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 45 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 47 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 23 cents per litre

The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for December.

The daily snapshots from the CEF are also not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments, and the numbers may change by the end of the month.

The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

However, the data provides a strong indication of where prices are headed and reflects current market trends for the first half of the month.

Rand saving the day

Looking at the CEF’s data, the main drawback to fuel price recoveries is the shift in international petroleum product prices.

This is largely driven by global oil prices, as South Africa imports already refined petroleum products.

However, the rand’s strength against the dollar is acting as a significant buffer, pulling underrecoveries back by between 16 and 19 cents per litre, softening the blow from oil.

The global oil price has been trading generally higher than it has since the start of the year, largely driven by market risks around the United States and Iran.

Prices were below $58 a barrel at the beginning of the year as forecasters hunkered down for an expected supply glut in 2026 and beyond.

However, they shot up to over $70 a barrel as the United States executed its highly unpredictable brand of foreign policy, first abducting Venezuela’s president at the start of the year, and now getting mixed up in Iran.

US President Donald Trump said Friday that regime change would be the best outcome for Iran following massacres that left thousands of protesters in the country dead.

The US is ratcheting up pressure on Tehran ahead of the negotiations in Geneva.

US-led talks to end the war in Ukraine are also scheduled to start in Geneva on Tuesday, though the prospects of a speedy end to the almost four-year-old conflict and the return of Russian barrels look slim.

According to Bloomberg analysts, markets are in a wait-and-see mode. If US geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices could drop below $60 a barrel once again.

Should this happen in the near term, local fuel recoveries could swing back into the positive for March 2026.

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps (Diesel prices reflect wholesale, pump prices will differ):