Energy

From joy to pain for petrol and diesel prices in South Africa

Staff Writer

 ·17 Jul 2026

As some analysts predicted, diesel price recoveries in South Africa have swung into negative territory, with petrol price recoveries heading in the wrong direction.

Data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the third week in July shows that diesel price recoveries have turned negative, with a price hike now building for Diesel of 0.05% (500ppm).

Recoveries for Diesel 0.005% (50 ppm)—more commonly used by passenger vehicles and more modern models—are still showing an over-recovery, but only marginally.

Diesel 0.05% is used by most commercial vehicles, ranging from tractors to heavy trucks, which will have a wider impact on industry and the supply chain.

Petrol prices are also still showing an over-recovery, but this is shrinking, having buckled by about R1.50 per litre since the start of the month.

These are the recoveries at the end of the week:

• Petrol 93: decrease of R1.07 per litre
• Petrol 95: decrease of R1.03 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 1 cent per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 24 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 22 cents per litre

This is how recoveries have shifted this month-to-date (MTD):

The swing was predicted by Chief Investment Strategist at Symmetry, Izak Odendaal, who noted that the over-recoveries that had been building since the start of the month were being offset by a daily under-recovery of around R3.71 per litre.

The under-recovery has been attributed to the rising global oil price, which has shot up to around $85 a barrel since the war between the United States and Iran reignited earlier in the month.

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop also noted that a R3 per litre over-recovery in the petrol price had also dropped to R1 per litre for the same reason.

Petrol 93 changes

Petrol 95 changes

Diesel 0.05% changes

Diesel 0.005% changes

According to Bloomberg analysts, the price crunch from the Middle East conflict is being exacerbated by troubles in Europe.

Fuel markets in the US and Europe are flashing record tightness, raising the risk of higher costs for consumers already under strain, it said.

“The squeeze coincides with a plunge in Russian exports after Ukraine attacked the country’s refineries and prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports.”

Markets remain generally on edge, with the baseline still being that a deal between the United States and Iran will be struck.

However, there has been a shift in market focus from the chance of a diplomatic breakthrough to questioning whether oil will be able to flow again.

For South Africa’s fuel recoveries, that means uncertainty persists, and prices risk swinging deeper into the red in the last two weeks of the month.

While a swing in prices—from an over-recovery to an under-recovery—would be felt directly by motorists, the shift would also affect the economy as a whole.

Price increases mean higher operating costs for producers, manufacturers, logistics, and transport across the entire supply chain.

The higher costs will then be passed on to consumer prices, adding even more pressure on inflation and the cost of living.

A smaller cut for petrol and a possible hike for diesel will also slow down or stem the recovery in prices to pre-war levels.

As things stand, petrol prices are still R6 per litre higher than when the war began, with diesel prices more than R7 per litre higher.

At current recovery levels, the August changes would hardly make a dent.

Post-Iran War price adjustments