Why it may not be the best time to be saving money in your bank account: economist
February’s national budget resulted in a significant reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio forecasts – the percentage of state debt in relation to the gross domestic product.
This focus on fiscal consolidation will see the country return to a more favourable debt-to-GDP ratio, reigniting investor confidence.
This projected upturn in the economy and a strong rand amid a low inflation environment is likely to encourage the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to reduce interest rates in 2018, say Old Mutual economists.
In fact the economists predict that there will be two rate cuts in 2018 alone, presenting a very different climate for local investors and the perfect opportunity for first-time investors currently saving money in a bank account to consider investing in a unit trust instead, explains Elize Botha, MD of Old Mutual Unit Trusts.
“While a reduction in the prime interest rate is good for the economy, it isn’t great for South Africans saving money in a bank account,” she said.
“Rate cuts will result in consumers with savings in interest-bearing vehicles to earn a lower return on their hard-earned cash.”
Long-term data compiled by the research team at Old Mutual Investment Group showed that it took 92 years to double the real value of a cash investment, based on historical average return, while equities (shares in companies listed on the stock exchange) needed only nine years to do the same.
Yet, according to the 2017 Old Mutual Savings and Investment Monitor, only 2% of South Africans are saving and investing their money in an equity-based investment vehicle.
“Cash is good for short-term needs and provides relative stability, but cash saved in a bank account or fixed deposit is seldom able to deliver real growth over the long term, as opposed to equities, which have proven to outpace inflation,” said Botha.
International investing
In his budget, former finance minister Malusi Gigaba also announced an increase to the offshore allocation of funds from 25% to 30%, of which the African allocation has increased from 5% to 10%.
“Offshore exposure protects local investors with a large exposure to the South African market against concentration risk, which is the danger that comes with holding all your eggs in one basket,” said Botha.
“The decision to allow investors to increase their offshore exposure comes at precisely the right time, given the strength of the rand,” she said.
Paying-off debt
Botha said that the possible reduction in interest rates is also the perfect opportunity for South Africans stuck in a debt trap to pay their liabilities off quicker.
In 2017, Old Mutual’s monitor reported that 16% of household income was going towards debt repayments such as personal loans, store accounts, and credit cards.
“It’s not possible for everyone to become wealthy, but it is possible for most of us to be financially free from debt.”
“Despite how South Africans view their current financial situation, financial freedom and the security it brings is attainable by reducing your living expenses, eliminating loans and ensuring that your income is greater than your expenses,” Botha said.
“South Africans with outstanding loans should take the opportunity of lower interest rates, should it arise, to use any savings to pay back their debt as quickly as possible.”
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