E-tolls are doomed: Outa
Outa released a press statement today (17 December 2013) saying that two weeks after Gauteng’s e-toll project was finally turned on, the e-tag uptake has been far lower than initially anticipated.
“We always knew that Sanral’s e-tag sales were inflated over the past two years, but we never expected the actual e-tag numbers in use to be this low,” said Wayne Duvenage, Chairman of Outa.
Until e-tolling started, the public had no way of knowing what the e-tag penetration rate was and were always reliant on Sanral’s figures to get a sense of the buy-in.
“However, Sanral have never been willing to openly show their source of information from their computer screens to independent journalists and other interested parties,” said Outa.
“Furthermore, Outa recently exposed Sanral’s publication of grossly misleading e-tag sales numbers in July this year and, as a result, they believed the credibility of Sanral’s information was dismal.”
Wayne Duvenage says no to e-tags
Duvenage said that they realized that Sanral has been trying to talk a good game and get the public to think the system was being accepted by most.
However, the few meaningful polls and research undertaken to date reflected overwhelming rejection to getting e-tags by the public, said Duvenage.
Outa said that, once e-tolling had started, they were able to check the penetration of e-tag sales, by conducting physical counts of cars with and without e-tags.
“A thorough count with extensive sample size of almost 8,000 vehicles was conducted from 5 to 13 December 2013 – 5,186 of which were counted at freeway on and off-ramps, to assess the actual e-tag up-take,” Outa said.
“The results were significantly lower than the impression created by Sanral. At a mere 15% of freeway users driving with e-tags, we extrapolate this to be around 350,000 to 400,000 e-tags in use on the Gauteng Freeways, i.e. less than half the 800,000 number indicated by Sanral, a week into e-tolling.”
Outa e-tag stats
According to Outa, if indeed Sanral’s current figure of 900,000 e-tag distribution is to be believed, something is seriously amiss.
“We can only ascribe their number to include e-tags farmed off to car rental and other fleets in other parts of the country, plus the hundreds of thousands of e-tags lying around in shops and storerooms, which are in effect useless, unless they are fitted in cars and creating easy revenue generation for Sanral.”
Additional information which Outa was able to glean from their research shows that intersections located closer to industrial areas – such as Modderfontein, Marlboro Dr, Malibongwe, and New Road – produced a slightly higher e-tag count (average of 18%), compared to those around residential areas (at an average of 13%).
“This somewhat confirms the notion that business is slightly more likely to ‘tag along’ while the public are not, but even so, the business count at just below 20% was still a massive blow to Sanral’s plans,” said Outa.
Outa e-tag stats per region
Outa said that this low e-tag uptake can only mean a greater indication of defiance by society against the e-toll fiasco than imagined.
“In addition, one can deduce that a low e-tag uptake will probably mean not much payment will be received from the non-tagged element of the freeway users,” said Outa.
“Outa estimates that even if Sanral manages to extort some payment from part of the non-tagged users at higher tariffs, they will be lucky to receive 40% of their targeted e-toll revenues and as a result, the system will be doomed,” said Duvenage.
“Threatening the public with criminal records and bad credit ratings will not work and will only exacerbate the problem for Government on this ill-conceived plan.”
Sanral sticking to its guns
After Outa made similar claims last week (12 December), Sanral issued a statement refuting the claims, saying that the road company has no reason to fabricate sales figures, and accused Duvenage of “playing in the mud”.
“Outa’s Wayne Duvenhage simply cannot resist playing in the mud even during such a period in South Africa,” Sanral fired back in a statement on Thursday (12 December).
“He (Duvenage) has become an “expert” on this project, even as he sits outside Sanral. But it doesn’t stop there. Even on matters judicial, he has firm views on how court rulings should go in spite of what judges have pronounced.
“The e-tag sales figures we have released are accurate. As a state-owned entity, everything we do is subject to audit processes by both the Auditor General and our external auditors. We have no reason to “fabricate” these figures as Outa alleges.
“We are confident of meeting our debt obligations and the improved rating by Moody’s a few days after toll commencement, though still negative, is an indication of a modest step in the right direction.
“As for Outa’s research, unless the sources of the information are known and found to be sound, we will not attach much value to it. We don’t know what equipment has been used, with which technical specifications and standards it complies and where it has been installed.”
More on e-tolls and e-tags
Sanral stands by e-tag sales figures
Sanral e-tag numbers a lie: Outa
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