How Zuma has dodged every bullet

·1 Jun 2016

President Jacob Zuma has faced at least 5 massive scandals in the past 6 months, and has escaped relatively unscathed as the ANC puts its main focus on the 2016 local elections.

Zuma has been at the centre of a number of high-profile scandals since December 2015, and has walked away from each of them relatively unscathed.

Political analysts have said that, following a Constitutional Court ruling against the president in April, the president was on shaky ground, politically; but now it appears the he is stronger than ever, with most of the fallout simmering out.

At a press briefing on Tuesday, ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe cemented the view, saying that the ANC National Executive has made a decision to focus primarily on the 2016 local elections, putting all other issues aside for now.

With ANC support, and allies in key positions in government, analysts say that Zuma is now in complete control of the party – and is definitely not going anywhere.

Here are the five biggest bullets aimed at Zuma in 2016, and how the president has dodged them all:

Constitutional court ruling on Nkandla

The bullet: President Zuma was found by the Constitutional Court to have violated the country’s constitution by failing to act on a Public Protector report on his Nkandla homestead.

The gun: The Public Protector’s report found that the president had unduly benefited from security upgrades made to his private home, and ordered that he pay back a portion of the money. Zuma, and Parliament, chose to ignore this, and rather absolved the him of any wrongdoing.

The dodge: Following the court ruling, the president apologised, and agreed to pay back some of the money. The ANC has since accepted the president’s apology and called the country’s reaction to the ruling over-stated, generally downplaying its significance.

Charges of corruption

The bullet: President Zuma could potentially face 783 charges of corruption, which were dropped “irrationally” in 2009 before he became president.

The gun: The North Gauteng High Court recently ruled that the corruption charges faced by Zuma in 2009 were dropped irrationally by the former head of the National Prosecuting Authority. The court ruled that these charges should be reinstated.

The dodge: The National Prosecuting Authority as well as the president have applied for leave to appeal the High Court Ruling, effectively delaying any closure on the matter. The president could still face the charges, but the matter is on hold for now.

State capture

The bullet: President Zuma’s friends, the Gupta family, have been linked to a number of high-level state contracts, business deals and government officials, which tie the president up in a conspiracy of state capture.

The gun: Deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas came forward in February claiming that he was approached by the Gupta family – personal and business friends of Zuma’s – and offered him the position of finance minister. Other government officials told a similar tale, pointing to widespread state capture involving the family through the president.

The dodge: An internal investigation by the ANC turned up no leads, with only one official coming forward with a written statement on the matter. In speeches, Zuma has shrugged off the term “state capture” as an overreaction – while the Guptas have effectively fled the country, distancing themselves from the president. Zuma maintains only he has the power to appoint ministers.

NeneGate

The bullet: Zuma is accused of trying to capture complete control of the Treasury through cadre deployment.

The gun: On 9 December 2015, Zuma unexpectedly fired former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene, and replaced him with the then-unknown Des van Rooyen. This caused the markets to crash, wiping as much as R500 billion from the economy, forcing the president to re-instate Pravin Gordhan into the role. The reasons Zuma gave for firing Nene proved to be untrue, months later.

The dodge: The markets ultimately recovered from the dip, and Nene moved on to other jobs in the private sector. Zuma has never accounted for his actions beyond stating that Van Rooyen was the best person for the job – a position he holds to this day. The president’s relationship with Gordhan has since come under scrutiny.

Zuma vs Gordhan

The bullet: Political insiders, speaking to the media, have painted a picture of a war brewing behind the scenes between Zuma and finance minister Pravin Gordhan. It is alleged that Zuma, through state departments, is trying to force Gordhan out.

The gun: The narrative stems from an investigation initiated by Zuma’s ally and head of SARS, Tom Monyane, into the minister and other former SARS officials around a so-called “rogue spy unit” which was allegedly used to spy on high profile citizens. The Hawks have since “harassed” the minister, with speculative reports saying the minister was facing arrest.

The dodge: All parties mentioned in the conspiracy – the NPA, the Hawks and the presidency – have all issued statements denying everything, assuring the country that no one is out to get Gordhan. The ANC has now spun the tale, with Mantashe saying it is the media and South African citizens who are making the finance minister vulnerable by treating him as an institution, rather than a civil servant.