Opposition parties move to impeach Zuma
The walls may be closing in on president Jacob Zuma as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) aims to institute impeachment proceedings against him.
The EFF said in a statement that it will be approaching the Constitutional Court to get an order that the speaker of the National Assembly, Baleka Mbete, institute impeachment proceedings or punishment against the president for the Nkandla matter, and for “lying to Parliament on numerous occasions”.
EFF leader, Julius Malema, said the party will also pursue a motion of no confidence in the president after he fires finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, which Malema is convinced is a done deal.
The EFF said its court application was a ‘last resort’, as the National Assembly has failed to hold the president to account for the Nkandla matter. COPE and the United Democratic Movement are also party to the applications.
The call for a vote of no confidence, however, is just another in a long line of failed attempts to have the president removed – though some analyst speculate that the divisions within the ANC could see another attempt succeeding.
What it will take to get Zuma out
According to research analysts at Nomura, there are only two ways to remove Zuma as president of the country:
The first is via a NEC recall – a majority of the NEC would recall president Zuma from president of the Republic, but he would remain president of the ANC, which only an elective conference could change.
A simple vote of the NEC would be needed, and an emergency NEC could be called to do so.
“We believe the Zuma faction is around 60% of the NEC but it could fracture in response to market and economic reactions to (the removal of Pravin Gordhan) or to fears around the likelihood of success of the faction in December.
“Ultimately, we think the Zuma faction is somewhat sticky and too many rely on president Zuma for their positions,” the analyst said.
The second is through a no-confidence motion in parliament. Such a motion would require a simple majority in parliament. This is the easier route than impeachment which requires a two-thirds majority.
With 400 seats a no-confidence motion requires 201 votes, meaning all opposition parties plus 48 ANC votes would be required for it to pass.
Some smaller parties have sided with the ANC in the past (such as the AIC with three votes) so Nomura thinks the ANC would need to splinter 50 or so votes.
Opposition parties unlikely to go along with it
While the DA and EFF have in the past tried to pass a motion of no confidence against the president, that is not to say they will simply go along with a motion led by rebels within the ANC.
“We do not believe that either opposition party would support such a motion and would expect them to abstain,” Nomura said.
This is because the parties know that the earlier Zuma leaves office, the more likely it is the ANC does well in 2019 elections, the group said.
“They have tried numerous no-confidence motions in the past which have all failed – they would say now that it is too late for the ANC to look for their support.
“Additionally, even if they were to back such a motion, and while there are deep splits in the ANC caucus, we think the ANC split would not be big enough without a vote or indication of a majority backing it from the NEC.”
“As such, we think NEC recall would be more likely than a no-confidence motion,” Nomura said.
BusinessTech asked the Democratic Alliance and the EFF if they would support an ANC-led motion of no confidence against president Zuma, but neither party responded to queries by the time of publication.
Read: Every motion of no confidence against Zuma: what they were about – and why they failed
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