Ramaphosa’s dream of high-speed trains for South Africa
It has been over five years since President Cyril Ramaphosa touted the idea of connecting South Africa with high-speed rail (HSR) services; however, with not much materialising, sceptics wonder whether the promised plans are on track.
“We want a South Africa that has prioritised its rail networks and is producing high-speed trains connecting our megacities and the remotest areas of our country,” said Ramaphosa at his first State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the sixth administration in 2019.
“We should imagine a country where bullet trains pass through Johannesburg as they travel from here to Musina, and they stop in Buffalo City on their way from eThekwini back here in Cape Town,” he added.
There is no formal standard for a service to qualify as HSR.
However, the generally accepted rule has been that a purpose-built railway system should support speeds over 250km/h, while those with upgraded lines should be capable of carrying trains at speeds over 200km/h to be considered HSR.
South Africa’s fastest passenger train service currently in operation — the Gautrain — has a top speed of 160km/h.
This promise by the President, although ambitious, was received with equal excitement and scepticism.
South Africa’s desire for, but declining public transport sector
According to PwC’s July 2024 Economic Outlook, 82% of South Africans are willing to use public transport if their area has better public transport infrastructure.
According to Thomas Howatt, PwC South Africa Transportation and Logistics head, this is attributed to various reasons, including increasing traffic congestion, road safety concerns, and the rising cost of private transport.
South Africa has the most extensive rail infrastructure in Africa; however, years of compounding inefficiencies have made the promise of an HSR sector seem like a pipe dream for some.
South Africa once had a bustling passenger rail sector.
According to StatsSA’s most recent National Household Travel Survey (2020). In 2013, the last time the NHTS was conducted, some 700,000 South Africans – representing 13% of the employed population – regularly used trains to get to and from work.
However, as PwC highlights, the “state [has been] unable to deliver the quantity and quality of services that it previously could [leading to the] South African population’s use of public services to decline across the board.”
Regular vandalism and theft of its networks, coupled with inefficiencies within governance, corruption and lack of investment, to name a few, has meant that the number has significantly dropped.
By 2020, that number dropped by almost 80%, with around 150,000 workers still relying on trains.
Less than 2.2% of all households (0.5 million) reported using trains as their main mode of transport, dropping significantly from the 8.9% (1.4 million) recorded in 2013.
Regardless, the government has said that the ball has been rolling since.
Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) CEO Hishaam Emeran recently claimed that it has recovered almost 80% of passenger rail corridors after widespread theft and vandalism destroyed the country’s passenger rail system.
““The resuscitation of the 31 corridors translates into the steady return of rail passengers. We are not where we need to be yet, but we are seeing significant progress,” after R30 billion of capital injections into various projects over the past two years, said Emeran.
High-speed rail
Progress on Ramaphosa’s smart city and bullet train promises has been muted.
In March 2022, then-transport minister Fikile Mbalula gazetted the country’s National Rail Policy White Paper, which sets out the foundation for establishing HSR corridors.
The National Rail Policy is the whitepaper that contains specific mention of High-Speed Rail (HSR), which Ramaphosa’s cabinet adopted.
“The framework will determine the strategic objectives for high-speed rail in the country and determine the criteria to be used in determining and prioritising these corridors,” the white paper reads.
In new Transport minister Barbara Creecy’s budget vote debate speech, she highlighted Cabinet’s approval of this.
“This Policy must be implemented with speed so that the country’s railway sector can be revitalised – commuter rail must become the backbone of the transport system,” said Creecy, which was echoed in the department’s annual performance plan.
Creecy said that “a planning component will be established to consider the strategic value of branch lines and unlock both state and private investment in lines which have economic potential and logistics capacity.”
“The planning component will assist in furthering the expansion and regional integration of our rail network, and ensure gradual compliance with standards,” she added.
Additionally, the Department of Transport developed a High-Speed Rail Framework, which prioritised and ranked various corridors.
In it, the Johannesburg to Durban corridor was identified as the highest-ranking potential high-speed rail corridor, with the Pretoria to Mbombela to Komatipoort corridor, and Johannesburg to Pretoria to Polokwane to Musina corridor, ranking second and third, respectively.
“In November [2023], Cabinet approved a framework for high-speed rail, focusing initially on the Johannesburg to Durban corridor,” said Ramaphosa at the last SONA of the sixth administration in February 2024.
However, little detail was given aside from naming the Durban-Joburg corridor as the priority route, which would move on to feasibility studies.
“Cabinet approved the High-Speed Rail Development Framework, and the financial implications for implementation will be discussed between the Ministers of Transport and Finance,” a summary of the cabinet meeting reads.
“Cabinet approved the prioritisation of the Johannesburg to Durban corridor for a detailed feasibility study, and the Johannesburg-Polokwane to Musina, and the Johannesburg to Mbombela will be put to the market,” it added.
Ramaphosa said that the” Department of Transport plans to establish a high-speed rail project management office to take this process forward.”
According to the available HSR Implementation plan, a Project Management Office for the High Speed Rail Corridor was expected to have started in April 2024, and completed in March 2026 with an estimated cost of R6 million.
The government has said that it plans to fully fund it; however, the abovementioned Cabinet-approved policies often reference private sector participation (PSP) in boosting the country’s rail capabilities.
“The DoT will spearhead the development of a PSP Framework for the rail industry,” said the department in its White Paper on National Rail Policy Presentation.
It is unclear whether this will involve that of HSR, or just logistics and average passenger rail.
China has shared its desire to be a possible investor.
China operates several high-speed trains, including some allegedly capable of reaching 600km/h.
At 600km/h, it would take less than an hour to travel from Johannesburg to Durban using this technology.
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