South Africa’s ‘real’ matric pass rate is only 50%

Official government statistics show that Matrics achieved an 87.3% pass rate in 2024, but a broader analysis shows that only 50% of matrics made it through the education system from Grade 1 to write matric.
Minister of Basic Education Siviwe Gwarube announced official matric results for the class of 2024, revealing a record-high pass rate of 87.3%.
Gwarube said that the matric pass rate is a strong indicator of progress. 614,562 learners passed the exams, the highest in South Africa’s history.
Over the last 15 years, South Africa’s NSC pass rate rose from 60% in 2009 to close to 90% in 2024.
The number of bachelor passes also increased by 6.9 percentage points, rising to 47.8% Bachelor pass.
Learners also achieved over 319,000 distinctions – with every province increasing the number.
However, rival political party Build One South Africa (BOSA) noted that the “real” matric pass rate is much lower, at 50%.
The “real” matric pass rate is calculated by accounting for the number of learners who dropped out or otherwise never made it to matric.
Of the 1.22 million learners who began school in grade 1 in 2013, only 614,562 passed matric in 2024, meaning that the country’s “real” pass rate is just 50.25%.
Data crunched by MyBroadband, looking at different cohorts—such as those starting grade 8, or grade 10—show the “real” pass rate slightly higher at around 56%, but still presenting the same problem.

Around 500,000 young people didn’t make it from Grade 1 to sit the matric exams.
Although others may have pursued other modes of education, such as TVET colleges, BOSA said that many have either dropped out or fallen through the cracks in the education system.
BOSA added that young South Africans will now face an uphill battle to enter the economy and find a job.
In previous years, Gwarube’s party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), would release statistics on the “real” matric pass rate, but this mantle now falls to BOSA, which is run by former DA leader Mmusi Maimane.
Reading more into the data
On top of the headline figure, BOSA poured some water on the other pieces of data by Gwarube.
University admission will remain an issue for 2024, with only 47% of learners passing with a bachelor’s Pass, which makes them eligible to enrol at the University.
“Trends predict that less than 15% of that cohort will enrol at a university. That is why global rankings place South Africa 107 out of 141 in skills readiness for the future workforce,” said BOSA.
Moreover, it should be noted that the so-called “30% pass mark” can inflate pass rates, with the current figures cited by many as unjustifiably low.
The Department of Basic Education has hit back at claims that South Africa has a 30% pass mark, saying that this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the pass requirements for matric.
Specifically, the department outlined that any learner with an aggregate 30% result would fail. Instead, the National Senior Certificate requirements include:
- At least 40% for the Home Language (Compulsory);
- At least 40% for TWO other subjects;
- At least 30% for THREE other subjects;
- Pass at least 6 out of 7 subjects.
Put another way, the aggregate requirement for a pass in matric is around 35%. BOSA said that this is a problem.
“Current standards convey to learners that 30% and 40% are acceptable achievements. Crucially, the majority of students who take crucial matric subjects pass with less than 50%,” said BOSA.
International benchmarks, such as TIMMS and PIRLS, show that only 20% of South African learners are performing at an appropriate level.
Previous Education Minister Angie Motshekga showed that 81% of South African children cannot read for comprehension in any of the 11 official languages by the age of 10.
BOSA said that to fix the country’s education crisis, the ‘30% pass mark’ must be scrapped and replaced with a 50% minimum for all subjects.
There is little debate about whether South Africa has an education crisis. To fix this, the 30% pass mark must scrapped and replaced by a 50% minimum for all subjects.
“In addition, reform must include an independent education ombudsman, raising salaries for educators, curtailing union power, incentivizing students during the academic year, prioritizing the primary phase of education, introducing a school voucher programme, and conducting a nationwide teacher skills audit.”
“With an annual education budget of over R300 billion, there is little justification for the substandard quality of education.”
“The lack of resources, overcrowded classrooms, unqualified teachers, and inadequate infrastructure are all symptomatic of a system that has failed to live up to its promises.”