South Africa’s most ‘undesirable’ province

Provincial data shows that Limpopo is quickly becoming the most undesirable province in the country, especially for those in the job market.

The province’s struggles are evident in its significant negative net migration, declining GDP contribution, and rising unemployment rates, all of which underscore its economic challenges.

According to data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), Limpopo has recorded the largest negative net migration of residents compared to any other province since 2011.

Over this period, 215,274 individuals left the province, while only 100,946 moved in, resulting in a net outflow of 114,328 people.

Alongside the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo is one of only three provinces that have experienced negative net migration.

However, the Eastern Cape’s net loss of 62,629 people and KwaZulu-Natal’s modest 10,067 pales in comparison to Limpopo’s numbers.

This exodus is largely driven by economic factors, as residents seek better job opportunities and earning potential elsewhere.

Despite an overall increase in population, Limpopo’s economic performance has failed to keep pace as its contribution to South Africa’s national GDP has been contracting, reflecting deeper economic issues.

As recently as in 2022, Limpopo accounted for 7.7% of the national GDP. By the second quarter of 2024, this figure had fallen to 7.1%, marking a 0.6 percentage point decline.

While provinces like Mpumalanga, the Free State, and the Eastern Cape also saw declines of 0.6, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, other regions either maintained their contributions or showed improvement.

The province’s unemployment rates further illustrate its challenges.

In the third quarter of 2024, the national unemployment rate dropped slightly to 32.1%, with 294,000 jobs created across South Africa.

However, Limpopo’s official unemployment rate increased from 31.4% to 32.6%, making it the only province to experience a rise in unemployment during this period.

This anomaly highlights the localised economic pressures and structural challenges impeding job creation in the region.

Several factors contribute to Limpopo’s economic difficulties.

The province’s economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, mining, and tourism—sectors that have faced considerable challenges in recent years.

Drought conditions, declining global commodity prices, and inconsistent infrastructure investment have disrupted these industries, limiting job growth even as other provinces recover.

For example, the mining sector, a significant employer in Limpopo, has suffered from market volatility and rising production costs.

Similarly, agriculture has been constrained by reduced yields and escalating input expenses, further curtailing its capacity to generate employment.

Limpopo’s lack of industrial diversification exacerbates its economic vulnerability.

Unlike provinces such as Gauteng and the Western Cape, which boast diverse and robust economies, Limpopo’s economic activity is narrowly concentrated.

This dependence on a few sectors leaves the province ill-equipped to withstand external shocks.

This issue is not unique to Limpopo, as Mpumalanga’s similar reliance on mining has also contributed to its GDP decline.

However, the impact in Limpopo appears more pronounced. The rise in discouraged job seekers offers another troubling indicator.

Nationally, the number of discouraged work seekers grew by 5% in the third quarter of 2024, but this trend is particularly acute in Limpopo. Many residents, faced with limited opportunities, have abandoned their job searches entirely.

While South Africa’s informal sector added 165,000 jobs during this period, particularly in trade and construction, Limpopo appears to have missed out on these gains.

Economic pressures in Limpopo are also reflected in household income statistics.

The province remains South Africa’s poorest, with data showing it’s the only province with over 80% of its population living in areas where the average household income is under R12,000 per month.

This starkly contrasts with wealthier provinces like Gauteng and the Western Cape, where these figures drop to less than 60% and 50%, respectively.

Gauteng, Limpopo’s neighbour and South Africa’s economic powerhouse, continues to attract significant numbers of Limpopo residents.

Since 2001, approximately 1.3 million people have left Limpopo for Gauteng, seeking better employment prospects and more affordable living conditions.

The challenges facing Limpopo underscore the urgent need for targeted economic interventions.

Addressing the structural weaknesses in key industries, diversifying the economic base, and investing in infrastructure could help reverse the trends of migration, unemployment, and economic contraction.

Read: The one province that has officially exited a recession in South Africa