South Africa’s murder nightmare

South Africa recorded a marked decrease in crime levels over the third quarter of the 2024/25 financial year, with violent crimes, in particular, seeing a welcome decline.

Despite the improvement, however, the country still recorded an alarming number of murders in the full calendar year, delivering a murder rate of 42 per 100,00 people—one of the highest rates in the world.

The South African Police Service (SAPS) published the latest crime stats covering October to December 2024, showing an overall 1.6% reduction in contact crimes, including drops in murder, attempted murder and sexual offences.

There was also a 13.5% drop in property-related crimes like burglary and theft and a 5.1% drop in other serious crimes.

Overall, crime levels among the 17 community-reported serious crimes were down 5% over the quarter, and crimes detected through police action were up 12.8%, showing a more effective police force.

Police Minister Senzo Mchunu said that this represents a significant shift in South Africa’s crime landscape, particularly compared to previous years.

However, despite the marked improvements, Mchunu said that violent crime levels remain unacceptably high and that four provinces in the country need extra focus.

He said that Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape were an “albatross” to crime fighting, posing quite a challenge to police and dominating in crime metrics.

These provinces coincide with the country’s major metros and population density and will, therefore, be the state’s focus in 2025.

This is especially true regarding violent crime, where Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal account for 25% and 21% of reported crimes, respectively.

However, when looking at murder rates (murders compared to population), the Eastern Cape is by far the most violent province, with 19.6 murders per 100,000 people.

This is followed by the Western Cape (16.0) and then KZN (12.6) and Gauteng (10.3).

Overall, 6,953 murders were recorded over the three-month period, averaging 75, murders a day.

While this was down almost 10% from the same period in 2023, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Although the data reflects the third quarter of the financial year, it also covers the final quarter of the 2024 calendar year, which gives a full overview of crime in 2024.

South Africa recorded 26,232 murders between January and December 2024, averaging 72 murders every day.

While this is lower than in 2023, is still gives the country an alarming murder rate of 42 per 100,000 people—one of the highest murder rates in the world.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime‘s latest data on homicide—published in 2024 and reflecting global stats from 2022—shows that the worst country in the world for murder is Jamaica, with a murder rate of 53.3 per 100,000 people.

In terms of numbers, Mexico ranked top with 33,287 cases.

While the UN data does not include South Africa, our local stats tracking puts these numbers at a rate of 43.3 per 100,000 people and 27,066 cases in 2022.

This would rank South Africa second worst on both accounts.

Looking at the worst areas in South Africa for murder, the top 30 worst stations reflect the wider provincial data with Gauteng, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KZN precincts featuring.

Mfuleni and Delft, part of the City of Cape Town, ranked as the worst two stations in the country, while Orange Farms topped the list in Gauteng and Inanda for KZN.

The SAPS noted that arguments, misunderstandings, road rage and other types of provocations were a big reason so many people are murdered in the country.

Murder during robberies is the second-biggest cause of death. However, gang-related murders, mob justice and revenge or retaliation still remain major causative factors.

Most murders occur in a public space, followed by private residences and places where liquor is sold.