Good news for small shopping malls in South Africa

Smaller shopping centres in South Africa have been a bright spot for South Africa’s retail sector.

According to the Clur Shopping Centre Index, trading densities at community and smaller shopping centres were bright in the second quarter of 2024.

The industry-standard Index helps listed and unlisted property funds to understand asset health and optimise returns at over 4.1 million sqm of prime retail space in South Africa and Namibia. It will soon increase to over 5.4 million sqm.

“With the emerging importance of the move to make the world well, community-focused retail, as a new frontier, is a critical consideration for shopping centre strategy. This community spirit is signalling the need for social impact retail,” said Belinda Clur, managing director of Clur International.

Clur said the Q2 2024 national Clur Index for All Centres closed at an annualised trading density of R41,343 /sqm, showing 3.6% y/y growth.

“This represents a further contraction of 0.9% relative to Q1 2024 and -1.5% relative to the 2023 calendar year. This growth also under-performed June 2024’s CPI by -1.5%.”

“The highest trading densities were shown by the two size extremes of super-regional centres (100,00sqm+), R49,177/ sqm, and community and smaller centres (under 25,000 sqm) at R42,497/ sqm. 

“The highest y/y% growth was shown by super-regional and regional centres, both at 3.9%.”

“While community and smaller centres showed the lowest growth rate of the pack at 1.7% in Q2 2024, they were also the only segment to show an expansion in growth relative to the first quarter, of 0.1%.”

In contrast, super-regional centres showed the largest contraction of 1.5% compared to Q1 2024.

The All Centres Index also contracted by 0.9% over the two quarters.

When looking at the indices for South Africa’s three biggest provinces, the Western Cape was the top performer, with a trading density of R45,638/ sqm and y/y% growth of 5.8%. It was the only index to outperform June 2024’s CPI by 0.7%.

“KwaZulu Natal showed the next highest trading density of R42,417/ sqm and is the only index to show negative y/y growth of -2.2%.”

“However, it is the only province to show a growth expansion relative to Q1 2024 of 0.4%. Gauteng had the lowest trading density of the three provinces, at R40,632/ sqm and the second highest y/y growth rate of 4.9%.”

Clur noted that a split-year comparison of growth rates – considering only Q2 against the remaining nine months of the rolling 12-month period – shows the nine-month trading density is higher across all segments, probably due to the festive season falling within this period.

“However, whilst the y/y% growth is also higher in most instances, community and smaller centres and the KZN province are counter this trend, showing higher growth rates for the three months of Q2 versus the prior nine-month period.”

“This counter-trend boost for these segments in the last quarter suggests that even better prospects are emerging there.”

The rise in smaller, mainly rural, centres has been prevalent across South Africa.

The 9,200 sqm centre is located close to Louis Trichardt (Makado) in the Northern part of Limpopo.

McCormick Property Development’s Jason McCormick previously told BusinessTech that there are few formal retail options in the area and that Madombidzha Mall will allow many access to essential services.

Regarding retail trends, Clur said that there has been a particular focus on personal wellness, with significant demand for athleisure, fitness, health, and beauty categories.

Social impact retail is also emerging, with many looking at products prioritising quality of life and experiencing dignity from a human, animal, tech and planet perspective.

When it comes to community retail, bringing retail to the doorsteps of hard-pressed consumers reduces transport costs, increasing available spending for essential groceries and other products.

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