Outrageous predictions for 2024 – including an AI deepfake crisis, and the fall of capitalism in the USA

Denmark-based Saxo Bank has continued its nearly two-decades tradition by publishing eight outrageous predictions for 2024.
Experts at the bank have made the predictions as ‘consensus-smashing forecasts’ that would ‘send shockwaves through the markets’ – but only if they come to pass.
While some of their predictions have been miss – like how billionaires did not fund a trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy and the UK did not hold an ‘UnBrexit’ referendum this year – others have been really close to being a hit.
For example, last year Saxo predicted that a country would agree to ban all meat production by 2030. Although not in its entirety, in November, Italy banned the production and sale of cultivated meat.
Saxo also predicted French President Emmanuel Macron would resign this year. Although Macron did not resign, a large portion of the country called for it. Widespread protests of over a million people erupted in France at the beginning of the year against France’s pension reform. Throughout this, Macron faced enormous internal pressure to resign.
Outrageous predictions for 2024
For 2024, Saxo is focusing on the theme of “the end of the road”.
The bank said that the pandemic disrupted the old normal, with many hoping for a return to it. However, the road ahead seems uncertain, and new technologies may create new problems. Their predictions explore this uncertain future.
A full write-up of the predictions can be found on Saxo Bank’s website.
Saudis buy Champions League franchise
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia aims to fast track themselves to being a global tourism, leisure and entertainment powerhouse.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a known football enthusiast, sees an excellent opportunity to go one step further than the revamp of the Saudi Pro League and, backed by FIFA, launches a successful attempt to buy the UEFA Champions League, one of the world’s most prestigious football tournaments.
A new FIFA World Champions League with 48 teams is being offered to all 220 leading clubs under the European Club Association umbrella, with a considerable number of games being played in Riyadh. European clubs are guaranteed 32 spots, while Asia/Middle East, Africa, and the Americas get five spots each, and the remaining go to Oceania.
Major health crisis shakes the globe as obesity drugs make people stop exercising
GLP-1 obesity drugs are seen as a solution to the world’s obesity epidemic, with its drug market is expected to hit $71 billion in 2032. However, recent studies have shown that it reduces heart risks and limits the progression of renal impairment in people with chronic kidney disease.
The convenience of taking a weight loss pill results in people reducing their exercise routine and increasing their consumption of unhealthy food. There is high demand for such pills that cannot meet supply. This leads to a major health crisis as people neglect to exercise or maintain a healthy diet, relying solely on pills to keep their weight in check. As a consequence, the global adult obesity rate is projected to increase from the current 39% to 45% by 2024.
In turn, the processed food industry sees a significant demand lift, McDonalds and Coca-Cola stock prices outperform broader markets by 60% each.
The fall of capitalism in the USA
Due to various internal and external pressures, the US government is forced to increase fiscal spending exponentially amid the 2024 elections to keep the economy going and avoid social unrest.
The budget deficit quickly spirals above 10% of the GDP. As a result of inflation and foreign investors withdrawing their capital, the demand for US Treasuries is low, which has caused an increase in US Treasury yields. To address this issue, the US government has decided to make income from government bonds tax-free in an attempt to bring borrowing costs back to normal levels.
The move marks the end of capitalism in the country as we know it, with money shifting from private to public corporations and holding riskier assets getting costlier. Subsequently, nationalisation and government intervention in struggling sectors increases.
Generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis
A group of criminals uses a highly sophisticated generative AI deepfake to deceive a high-ranking government official of a developed country into providing them with top-secret state information. This act leads to a national security crisis, which results in the introduction of far-reaching regulations to govern the use of AI technology.
In response, the US and EU declare that all content produced by a generative AI should have the label ‘Made by AI’ and failure to comply will lead to a harsh penalty.
The incident creates a widespread distrust in the information that is being shared on the internet. As a result, many governments in developed countries implement strict regulations that limit the dissemination of news only through government-approved news organisations. This move has a significant impact on social media platforms and non-compliant news organisations.
Deficit countries form ‘Rome Club’ to negotiate trade terms
In Rome, 2024, the world’s largest deficit countries will convene due to a severe global recession and limited options to reduce interest rates, resulting from persistently high inflation. Their goal is to establish better terms for structurally reducing the surplus countries’ ability to continue growing their surpluses.
The aim is to reset the deficits through gradual pegged revaluations, which would enable a global reset, creating a more equitable and stable economic model. The six founding countries of the ‘Rome Club’ are the United States, United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Canada, and France.
A major catalyst for this is the US’ surging debt, going from $273 billion in 1958, to $33 trillion in 2023.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr becomes the 47th President of the United States
For the first time in the history of the USA, a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr, wins the US presidential election.
Voter enthusiasm for both older candidates, Trump and Biden, wanes. Biden’s support weakens due to a faltering economy and labor market, while Trump’s hard-core supporters dwindle due to his erratic behavior.
Despite trailing in the polls, Kennedy wins the US presidential election on 5 November with 38% of the popular vote, beating Biden and Trump. His Electoral College win is dominant and he is able to build bipartisan coalitions in Congress, shaking up US politics.
Japan’s ‘lucky 7%’ GDP growth rate forces Bank of Japan (BoJ) to abandon yield curve control
In Japan, the deflation era has ended and wage growth is back. As a result of the proposed consumption tax rate cuts, Japanese consumers are expected to move away from their savings mindset.
The government’s populist policies are expected to further increase domestic demand. With the increasing demand, businesses are announcing capex increases, and labor dynamics are shifting.
Japan begins adopting a framework for technology diffusion to boost productivity despite labor shortages, and more technology companies are investing in Japan with government support. The country’s yield curve control policy is over-stimulating the economy, which forces the Bank of Japan to end the policy in 2024, causing a global bond market rout.
EU goes Robin Hood, introduces wealth tax causing luxury to plunge
The European Union (EU) has created billionaires who pay the lowest amount of personal tax compared to North America and East Asia, according to a report.
As social unrest in Europe is constantly at the edge of eruption, and as costs associated with the green transformation, the war in Ukraine and general inflation rise, the EU Commission commits to the July 2023 European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) entitled ‘Taxing great wealth to finance the ecological and social transition’.
The EU Commission plans to tax 2% of wealth on billionaires to raise EUR42 billion for climate change, healthcare, education, and public infrastructure.
The new wealth tax has impacted the luxury industry, with LVMH shares dropping by 40%.
Read: Outrageous predictions for 2023 – including a ban on meat and an end to tax havens