Bad news for braai lovers in South Africa
South Africans might find it slightly more expensive to have a braai this month, even though prices have come down since the same time last year.
Month-on-month, prices for foods used to host South Africa’s favourite pastime have gone up by around 1% – but year-on-year, prices have declined by 1.2%.
This is according to the latest Braai index, conceptualised by Bloomberg and compiled using the latest data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMGEJD).
The index looks at the food items used in the preparation of braai, and tracks the movement in prices of this specific basket month-on-month and year-on-year.
This includes the meat (Beef, worse, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).
To compile its survey, the PMBEJD’s data collectors track food prices on the shelves of 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries that target the low-income market in the greater areas of Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Pietermaritzburg, Springbok in the far northwest and the far northeastern town of Mtubatuba.
The month-on-month index showed prices for a braai coming down by 1.0%. Year-on-year, prices were down 1.2%. This is a continued declining trend in year-on-year pricing, meaning more affordable braais overall.
This is also broadly in line with the latest consumer inflation numbers from Stats SA, which showed that the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Food NAB) segment increased slightly month-on-month, despite overall inflation dropping.
Annual food & NAB inflation increased, rising from 4.5% in July to 4.7% in August. Headline CPI, meanwhile, dropped to 4.4%.
Most product groups registered higher annual rates, including bread & cereals; meat; fish; milk, eggs & cheese; oils & fats and vegetables. Lower rates were, however, recorded for fruit, sugar, sweets & desserts, and both hot and cold beverages.
Month-on-month index change [+1.0%]
Year-on-year index change [-1.2%]
Food prices in South Africa
Looking at the PMBEJD’s full data—its full basket comprising 44 food items across the country—food inflation has been muted year-on-year, increasing only 1.9%, while month-on-month, prices rose marginally by 0.5%
In September 2024, the average cost of the Household Food Basket was at R5,255.68.
Month-on-month, the basket increased by R28.54 (0.5%), from R5,227.14 in August 2024, and year-on-year prices were up R99.91 (1.9%), from R5,155.77 in September 2023.
According to the Food Inflation Brief from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), meat prices are still largely on the deflation trend.
In the local meat market, beef carcass prices experienced a slight drop of 0.8% (MoM) in August, though they remained 5.2% higher compared to the same period last year.
Cattle slaughter in July 2024 (latest available data) went up by 9% compared to July 2023. The YoY price gains are likely driven by a boost in export activity, which has supported overall market stability.
Weaner prices went down by 1 % (MoM), decreasing the pressure on feedlot margins slightly amidst persistently high feed costs.
Meanwhile, the pork market experienced modest growth, with prices rising by 1% (MoM) and a slight drop of 0.2% (YoY).
Poultry prices, particularly Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) pieces, remain fairly stable, increasing by only 0.7% MoM.
“After the spike in late 2023 caused by the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak, prices have been falling consistently as production levels return to normal. IQF prices dropped by 14% YoY, reflecting a combination of recovering supply and subdued consumer demand,” the BFAP said.
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