Load shedding risk as Eskom moves to emergency reserves
Power utility Eskom says there is a low risk of load shedding on Thursday, after unplanned outages increased on Wednesday evening, forcing it to move to emergency reserves.
The group noted that unplanned outages climbed to 13,580MW, after maintaining levels at around 12,000MW for most of the week.
Eskom previously said that outages would have to be kept below 9,500MW to guarantee no load shedding would take place, but the group has not been able to get to that level since load shedding made an unwelcome return at the start of January.
“The system will require our emergency resources to be utilised extensively in order to avoid load shedding,” it said.
“Our open cycle gas turbine generators, which use diesel to generate electricity, will be utilised in order to allow the replenishment of the water levels at our pumped storage schemes which were run flat out (on Wednesday).
“This is in order to ensure that there is adequate supplementary capacity to meet demand in electricity (on Thursday). Owing to this, there is a low risk of load shedding,” it said.
South Africa would have breathed a collective sigh of relief in recent days, as the country has managed to avert electricity blackouts which were a daily occurrence in December and at the beginning of January.
However, Absa analysts warn that load shedding is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF), which is the proportion of its theoretical generating capacity that is actually available at any given time, fell to new lows towards the end of 2019 as unplanned outages (breakdowns) mounted, Absa pointed out.
“With electricity demand likely to ramp up sharply in the second half of January as businesses and factories return to work, the prospect of further load shedding remains high, until such time as Eskom makes a lot more progress in rehabilitating its existing plant and/or procuring new supply.”
Research from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) shows that load shedding is expected to continue for 2-3 years depending on key decisions/actions from government, adding that an urgent response is necessary to ensure short-term adequacy and set South Africa on a path towards long-term adequacy in the 2020s.
Despite plans to boost capacity on the national grid, implementation will take time, and is dependent on appropriate action from government, the CSIR said. Historically, as seen with previous goals with the Integrated Resource Plan, these have not come to fruition.
As such, strain on the system is likely to persist.
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