Elections 2024: where parties got their support in 2019
South Africa’s general election is just over two months away and is anticipated to be the most closely contested election in the country’s democratic history.
Looking at the national ballot, voters make their mark next to which party (and now including independent candidates) they would want to send to the National Assembly (Parliament) – which has 400 available seats.
In the 2019 elections, the ANC secured 230 seats (57.5% of the vote) – down 19 seats from the 2014 election, 34 from 2009, and 49 from 2004.
It is widely predicted that the ANC will fall below the 50% mark, which would mark the first time that the ruling party would not have an outright majority (200 seats + 1).
Polling from Ipsos, the Brenthurst Foundation, and the Social Research Foundation predicts that the ANC will get between 38% and 45% of the national vote.
Hence, in one of the most competitive elections to date, parties have their sights set on broadening their voter base by wooing new and retain existing voters.
Looking at the previous national ballot results can show political parties’ strengths and weaknesses that they would be focusing on during the campaign trail. This is because previous results identify the foothold (and lack thereof) that parties have previously established in different regions.
Where the ‘top five’ parties garnered their votes from in 2019
African National Congress (ANC)
For the national ballot, the ANC received 10,026,475 votes – giving them 57.5% of the vote and 230 seats in the National Assembly.
This was 4.65% and 19 seats less than 2014.
The party received a majority in eight out of the nine provinces.
Their largest support base in terms of votes cast came from the populous provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal respectively.
However, these are the second and third worst performing provinces for them in terms of the percentage of the electoral support (worst is the Western Cape) where they managed to obtain a majority by a hairs breath.
The ANC’s grip on the majority in these two provinces is predicted to drop significantly, polling at 34% in Gauteng and 20% in KwaZulu Natal according to the latest Brenthurst Foundation poll.
When looking at the vote percentages in the provinces, Limpopo emerged as a stronghold for the ANC, receiving a comfortable 77% of the vote.
Democratic Alliance (DA)
In the 2019 national election, the DA secured 20.77% of the votes (3,622,531) for the national legislature – resulting in 84 seats.
This was a 1.46% and 5-seat drop from the 2014 elections.
The DA drew its largest voter base in Gauteng, securing 1.112 million votes (24.53%). This is a couple thousand votes more than they received in the Western Cape, where the party received an outright majority (52.41%).
The party received the second most votes in Gauteng, the Free State, Northern Cape and Eastern Cape.
Current polling from the Brenthurst Foundation predicts the DA to increase its largest voter base seen in Gauteng to 32% (+7%).
Polling for the DA ahead of the 2024 elections has been relatively all over the place – ranging from 17.3-20% (Ipsos) to 27% (Brenthurst Foundation)
The party’s support base is proportionately the smallest in Limpopo, securing 5.37% of the vote in the province.
The DA is hoping to maintain its outright majority in the Western Cape and has said that winning Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal is ‘within reach’ with the help of the Multi-Party Charter.
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)
The EFF maintained its momentum from previous elections, securing 1,882,480 or 10.8% of the vote. This saw them get 44 seats in the National Assembly.
This was a 4.45% and 19-seat increase from 2014.
Like the ANC and the DA, the EFF’s biggest chunk of support is from the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.
Proportionately, their largest base is seen in the North West, at 17.09% where they got the second most votes. They are also second in Mpumalanga and Limpopo.
The EFF struggled to make a big dent in the Western Cape, garnering 4.19% of the vote in the province in 2019.
Polling ahead of the 2024 elections for the EFF is also erratic. Some polls (Ipsos) sees the possibility of the EFF snatching the title of official opposition with around 18% of the vote.
However, this polling was done before the emergence of Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe – with recent polling by the Brenthurst Foundation seeing the party drop to 10%.
Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP)
The IFP saw a resurgence in the 2019 elections, securing 588,839 or 3.38% of the national vote – securing 14 seats in parliament.
This was a 0.98% and 4 seat increase from 2014.
Its stronghold, KwaZulu Natal, is where 90.44% of their overall votes came from, securing the second most votes.
The second biggest voter pull for the IFP is Gauteng, drawing 45,840 votes.
In the Northern Cape, Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Free State, North West and Limpopo, the IFP did not get more than 0.1% of the vote in the province.
Polling predicts a dip in national support for the party, at around 2%. However, the same polls see the IFP gain ground in its stronghold, KwaZulu Natal, to around 19% of the vote in the province.
Vryheidsfront Plus (VF Plus)
The VF Plus saw a 1.48% increase in their national voter support, receiving 414,864 votes for the National Assembly.
This 2.38% of the overall support secured them 10 seats in Parliament – 6 seats more than in 2014.
VF Plus drew their largest support base from Gauteng and the Western Cape – however, proportionally, they performed best in the North West, securing 4.05% of the vote in the province.
The party had its worst performance in KwaZulu Natal, receiving 0.45% of the vote.
Polling from Ipsos predicts the party to have a 0.28% dip in support, to garner around 2.1% of the vote.
Read: South Africa’s record 2024 election – all the stats you need to know
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