Energy

Bad news for petrol prices in South Africa next week

Staff Writer

 ·31 Jul 2026

The petrol price over-recovery seen in July has disappeared, with motorists now facing price hikes in August.

Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that the over-recovery for Petrol 95 has reversed into an under-recovery, while Petrol 93’s over-recovery has diminished to 5 cents per litre.

Diesel recoveries have pushed even deeper into the red, with motorists using this fuel now expected to pay between R1.75 and R1.90 per litre more from next week.

The flip in recoveries is in line with the rise in global oil prices in the latter half of the month, as the US and Iran continued to wage war in the Middle East.

At the start of the month, oil prices were on a downward trend, hovering around $70 a barrel, boosted by the suspension of aggression between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, after the ceasefire between the US and Iran fell apart near the middle of the month, the war reignited, the Strait was again shut down, and oil prices shot back up to $100 a barrel.

After a period of no shipping through the Strait, movement picked up slightly near month-end, easing the pressure on prices.

Oil is currently trading around $88 a barrel, though there appears to be no end in sight for the conflict. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode amid risks of the war spreading.

The rand, meanwhile, has also weakened this month after the South African Reserve Bank surprised markets by holding interest rates.

The rand pushed to around R16.80 to the dollar following the decision, but has since recovered to around R16.50/$ on a better-than-expected producer inflation reading and sizeable budget surplus for June.

These are the recoveries at the end of the week:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 5 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: no change (0 cents per litre)
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R1.91 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R1.76 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R1.51 per litre

Month to date, petrol price recoveries have shrunk by R2.50 per litre and by around R5 per litre for diesel, reflecting the impact of the war and the weakening of the rand.

This is how recoveries have shifted this month-to-date (MTD):

Notably, the CEF snapshots aren’t the final picture of price adjustments; they depict a trend.

The final, official adjustments will be announced in the coming days by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources.

This announcement could include other adjustments, such as the slate levy, which could push prices either way.

However, the erasure of the over-recovery in July means that fuel prices are moving further away from their pre-war levels, keeping costs higher for longer, and putting pressure on inflation.

As things stand, petrol prices are still R6 per litre higher than when the war began, with diesel prices more than R7 per litre higher.

At current recovery levels, the projected August changes will keep petrol the same and push diesel to almost R9 per litre.

Post-Iran War price adjustments