3 scenarios for South Africa – and where we’re heading right now

 ·2 Nov 2021

Momentum Investments has identified three scenarios that it believes will determine South Africa’s future growth prospects.

The analysis shows that while there is some optimism and chance that the South African and global economies will emerge positively from the Covid-19 socio-economic crisis, there is a 65% chance that South Africa will continue to ‘muddle’ its way through the next few years of economic challenges.

Herman van Papendorp, head of investment research and asset allocation at Momentum Investments, said that the company uses scenario planning to better inform its investment strategy and gave insights into what the socio-economic future of South Africa may look like in the wake of Covid-19.

“Our basic premise at Momentum Investments is that, because the future is unknown, we must be humble enough to acknowledge that our ability to see the future is as limited as everybody else’s. As a result, we guard against putting all our investment eggs in one proverbial basket, knowing that we cannot ‘back’ only one specific future envisaged outcome for our investments.

“We construct portfolios in a way that takes into account the fact that an expected outcome may not materialise and that other scenarios could come to be in the future.”

Van Papendorp said that Momentum invests for the central most probable base-case scenario and takes cognisance of the positive and negative pair risks incorporated in two other possible scenarios –  a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

The three scenarios are as follows:

Base case scenario: ‘Muddle Through’ (65% probability)

In this case, South Africa initially experiences an economic growth rebound, but this will be off a low base due to the significant economic downturn during the Covid-19 lockdowns, as opposed to structural reforms, which would lead to more sustained growth. Slow reforms and vaccination hesitancy will prevent a positive trend from continuing medium to long term.

Worst case scenario: ‘Deflation’ (20% likelihood)

Weak global growth and the absence of any local economic reform agenda causes South Africa’s growth potential to plunge towards zero. A sovereign credit rating downgrade spiral ensues, and there is an increased probability of an IMF or World Bank bailout.

Best case scenario: ‘Reflation’ (15% probability)

Fast economic reforms initiated by Government and strong global economic growth will lift South Africa’s growth potential. This enables the country’s credit rating to move closer towards investment grade in the longer-term gradually.

South African growth scenarios 

Global growth scenarios 

What will determine which path South Africa takes?

 “There are four main factors that we believe will drive which scenario comes into being in the coming years. Two of these factors are global, and two are local to South Africa,” said Van Papendorp.

“On the global front, the relative success of the vaccination process across the world – including in South Africa – will be the first factor impacting global economic growth, and the second will be the future path that global fiscal and monetary policy takes.”

  • How successful the global vaccine rollout is: Whether the world can realise a more even rollout of the Covid-19 vaccines and whether the vaccine continues to be effective against possible future strains.
  • How global monetary and fiscal policies evolve in the near future: The results of economic stimulation policies may differ between developed and emerging markets, but initially, they are likely to counter Covid-19’s contraction forcefully. However, the differences will come in a bit later, when recovery becomes uneven due to uneven vaccination rollouts in different markets. A rise in protectionism, inflation and a hesitancy to rely on global supply chains may also factor in.
  • The ANC’s electoral performance in the next few years: Differing scenarios for the ruling party’s electoral performance have been factored into the Momentum Investments’ scenarios, covering whether the ANC retains a healthy majority, all the way through to the ANC potentially losing its majority and being forced to govern in a coalition with the EFF. The ANC’s majority is directly linked to its ability to implement economic reforms.
  • The likelihood of South Africa implementing economic reforms: Economic reforms have long been recognised by the private sector as being needed to stimulate growth. Momentum Investments’ 3 scenarios consider whether the required reforms are likely to be affected or not. Reforms are necessary to move the country closer to regaining an investment-grade rating from international ratings agencies, which will be a significant factor in the future performance of investment asset classes.

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