Rand hits R15 vs the dollar amid downgrade threat
The rand hit R15 versus the dollar for first time in more than three weeks during New York trade amid concerns of an imminent downgrade as a result of a weakened economy.
By 11h30 on Thursday, the rand traded at R14.97 against the US currency, some way off a five-month high of 14.1165 reached on Friday.
It traded at R21.68 against the British pound, and at R17.12 versus the Euro.
“ZAR breached 15.0000/dollar for first time in more than 3 weeks during New York trade, but managed to overturn some losses thereafter. Relief rally has hit speed bump and if US jobs data beat expectations tomorrow local unit might be in for more pain,” NKC African Economics said in a note, reported by Reurters.
“Expected range on rand today: 14.75/dollar – 15.10/dollar.”
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank warned that South Africa faces a medium to high probability of a downgrade to non-investment status.
Standard & Poor’s and Fitch rate South Africa a notch above sub-investment grade, while Moody’s has it two notches above junk.
Bloomberg noted that South Africa risks losing its investment-grade status with S&P Global Ratings due to review its BBB- assessment, which is one level above junk, in June.
Moody’s Investors Service put its assessment, which is one step higher, on review for a downgrade in March.
Bloomberg said that S&P Global Ratings will lower the nation’s rating to non-investment grade by the end of this year – citing 12 of 13 economists and analysts surveyed by the news agency.
Four see the downgrade to BB+, which will put South Africa on par with Turkey and Indonesia, coming as early as next month, Bloomberg said.
All 13 analysts predict Moody’s Investors Service, which rates the nation one level above S&P, will cut its assessment by December.
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