Banking

Nedbank CEO has good news for South Africa

Luke Fraser

 ·4 Aug 2026

Nedbank Group CEO Jason Quinn believes that South Africa’s economy continues to show encouraging signs despite the recent volatility.

Speaking in the group’s financial results for the first half of 2025, Quinn said that the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on the global economy.

This led to inflationary pressures in South Africa and other markets, as well as a more hawkish monetary policy stance.

The operating environment in South Africa was mixed, with real GDP growth in Q1 surprising on the upside, while higher fuel prices drove local consumer inflation up to 5% in June.

The Reserve Bank also hiked interest rates by 25 basis points in May, taking the prime lending rate to 10.5%.

Quinn noted that credit growth strengthened modestly, with corporate credit growth accelerating off a low base.

Household credit growth improved slightly but was still constrained by affordability pressures.

Nevertheless, the CEO said that the nation’s economic outlook remains encouraging, amid a more “credible fiscal trajectory, progress on structural reforms, and recent credit rating upgrades.”

“Many of the country’s positive prospects as an attractive investment destination remain intact
despite global uncertainties and the conflict in the Middle East,” he said.

While Nedbank’s headline earnings for H1 2026 were flat year-on-year at R8.4 billion, this was an outperformance from their expectations at the start of the year.

Headline earnings benefited from improving net interest income growth, strong non-interest revenue growth and very disciplined expense management, Quinn noted.

However, they were offset by a higher impairment charge and by the non-recognition of associate income from Ecobank Transnational Incorporated following its sale in 2025.

Excluding the ETI base, headline earnings growth stood at 12%, which Quinn linked to strong underlying operational performance.

The group’s Return on equity (ROE) of 15.0% (H1 2025: 15.2%) was slightly above its cost of equity of 14.0%.

The group also declared an interim dividend of 1,052 cents per share, amid a strong balance sheet.

The group also began restructuring in 2025 to become more client-centred, unlock growth and cross-selling opportunities, diversifying earnings, and improving productivity.

“Benefits have become more evident across our business clusters in the first half of 2026,” said Quinn.

The group has already begun to see early synergies following its iKhokha and Eqstra acquisitions, while it is also making progress with its acquisition of a majority stake in NCBA in Kenya.

Outlook

Quinn said that South Africa’s GDP growth is expected to improve slightly to about 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending.

However, growth is set to be constrained by weak business confidence, subdued fixed investment and global energy price risks.

As inflation is expected to remain above the 3% target, averaging 4.0% in 2026, the SARB is expected to increase the lending rate by a further 25 bps in September 2026.

However, the CEO said that rates are expected to decline gradually in 2027.

“Banking conditions should improve gradually, with credit growth projected to remain positive
and end the year at around 7%, although risks remain tilted to the downside,” said Quinn.

“We expect the underlying growth momentum across all our businesses to continue in H2 2026,
supporting an improvement in HE growth from the flat outcome reported in the first half.”

ROE is expected to exceed 15% in 2026, approaching 2025 levels. In the medium term, ROE is expected to reach around 17% in 2028, underpinned by revenue growth and efficiency gains.