Big headaches for home builders in South Africa
Sentiment in the building sector may be improving, but the vast majority are unhappy with business conditions—especially those in the residential property sector.
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, which measures sentiment in the building sector, climbed from 35 in 2Q2024 to 40 in 3Q2024.
However, the current index level means that 60% of respondents are unhappy with prevailing business conditions.
The following changes in sentiment were seen over the quarter:
- building material manufacturers (+16),
- architects (+12),
- hardware retailers (+10),
- sub-contractors (+3),
- main contractors (-6)
- quantity surveyors (-10).
Despite a slight uptick in activity, main contractor confidence decreased from 47 in 2Q2024 to 41 in 3Q2024.
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data showed that the real value of residential building investment contracted by 7.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q2024.
A milder decline of 3.7% year-on-year was registered for non-residential investment.
The latest survey results show that, at least in terms of work, non-residential builders were having a better time than their residential building counterparts in 3Q2024.
“The weakness in residential building activity reflects the downbeat trends in the housing property sector,” said Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, Senior economist at FNB.
“Moreover, the cessation of load-shedding since March has reduced demand for residential energy installations, an important source of work for the sector in the recent past.”
“Meanwhile, demand for non-residential buildings is faring better, but off a low base.”
Sub-contractor confidence was three points higher in 3Q2024 at 41.
The results regarding building activity in the quarter were relatively mixed, particaurly when looking at the sub-sectors, with work at the start of the building pipeline being far more upbeat.
The confidence level among architects also rose by 12 points to 45 in 3Q2024 – in line with the long-term average – following a rise in activity.
“Given the level of activity, one would have expected confidence to rise by even more. However, respondents are increasingly concerned about the delays at municipalities regarding plan approvals, which is hindering their progress on projects,” said Mkhwanazi.
Although activity amongst the quantity surveyors increased, the confidence level still shed 10 points to register a level of 37 in 3Q2024.
Building material manufacturer confidence increased to 16 in 3Q2024 following two consecutive zero readings. Production increased, but significantly, the increase in production costs moderated.
Though off a shallow base, better sales growth helped support sentiment among hardware retailers. At 57, confidence is now at its highest level since 2022.
Overall, the residential building sector continued to underperform in 3Q2024, but work for non-residential builders showed a noticeable improvement.
Notably, the building pipeline suggests good cause for optimism regarding the medium-term prospects for the building construction sector.
“While the outlook for activity is encouraging, a number of constraints continue to weigh on sentiment in the sector, such as delays in municipal approvals and crime and extortion (i.e. the construction mafia),” said Mkhwanazi.
“These will need to be addressed to ensure that projects can progress and be completed on time and within budget.”
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