The goalpost to end load shedding in South Africa just shifted – and we’re running out of time
Power utility Eskom says that it will need 53,000MW of new additional generation capacity over the next 10 years to ensure energy security in South Africa. This will require “extraordinary measures” to expedite the rollout of the grid, it said.
The group laid out the situation at its Transmission Development Plan (TDP) Public Forum on Thursday (27 October), where it said the additional capacity would have a specific focus on renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar.
This 53,000MW new additional power includes the current deficit of between 4,000MW and 6,000MW and is a significant revision of the TDP 2021, which based its assumptions for new generation capacity on the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP2019), which proposed around 30,000MW of new capacity by 2030.
“To accommodate this additional capacity, and on the assumption that obstacles to the implementation of the roll-out plan are removed, the transmission infrastructure would need to be augmented by approximately 14,200km of extra-high voltage lines and 170 transformers by 2032,” it said.
Given long-term uncertainties, the group said that it would focus on implementing projects over the next five years. This would come at a significant cost, however.
The analysis carried out reflects a requirement of approximately 2,890km of extra high-voltage lines and 60 transformers, requiring a capital investment of R72.2 billion by FY2027, it said.
“To deliver grid strengthening projects over the next five years requires us to collectively take extraordinary measures to expedite the rollout of the grid. Undoubtedly, this will require careful planning on our part, as well as alignment, co-ordination and support from all key stakeholders”
“This requires that some challenges beyond Eskom’s full control, such as the lead time to obtain servitudes, among other relevant authorisations, as well as the resource capacity in the country, be urgently addressed,” it said.
The updated TDP also takes into account the deterioration of the energy availability factor (EAF) of the Eskom coal fleet, which was a key factor in the drafting of the IRP2019.
“The additional generation capacity requirements also take into account Eskom’s 2035 Corporate Strategy and have considered the connection applications received from the various procurement programmes by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) and applications received from the non-DMRE integration programmes, as well as input from various renewable energy associations.”
Accommodating this increased generation capacity means that a reliable and adequate transmission system is required to integrate and dispatch this new capacity to the load centres across the country.
Eskom’s Managing Director for Transmission, Segomoco Scheppers, said that the next five years are very critical for the security of supply.
“If the TDP 2022 requirements to deliver an adequate transmission network capacity by 2027 are to be met, a significant investment of R72.2 billion will be required to expand and strengthen the transmission grid over the next five years.
“Of this amount, R50.8 billion is required for new capacity expansion projects to meet the reliability requirements, the connection of new generation capacity and loads, as well as to acquire servitudes. A further R21.4 billion is required to refurbish the existing asset base and procurement of production equipment.”
Separation
Giving an update on the legal separation of the Transmission business as a wholly owned subsidiary of Eskom, the group said that the process is at an advanced stage, with the Transmission
entity having been registered as the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTC) SOC Ltd.
“A binding merger agreement has already been signed with suspensive conditions to be fulfilled for the effective transfer of the business from Eskom to the Transmission entity. Following the fulfilment of suspensive conditions, NTC will be operationalised, and employees will be transferred to the company on the same conditions of service without disrupting their years of service.”
The electricity licence application for NTC has been resubmitted to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) during September 2022 and is under consideration.
“Eskom depends on the government and lenders for the conclusion of key requirements. The timeline for commencement of trade for NTC is anticipated to be in the new financial year, on the proviso that all suspensive conditions are fulfilled.”
Loading ...
