Stage 8 load shedding hits as South Africa runs out of time

Whether Eskom wants to admit it or not, South Africa hit stage 8 load shedding this week, energy experts say – while the government continues to dither on its energy policy, putting billions of dollars in investment at risk.

As the country was thrust into all-day stage 6 load shedding this week, data published on Friday revealed that Eskom had actually cut over 7,000MW of power from the grid on Thursday.

By Eskom’s own definitions, this is equal to 8 stages of load shedding. The group explained the figure away by noting that the figure was around 5,700MW cut from the national grid (stage 6 load shedding) plus a further 1,400MW from its contracted customers (stage 4 load curtailment).

However, this reporting structure has also never been used before, indicating that something was off. It is also not the first time this has happened. Over 7,000MW of load was cut for two days back in February.

At the time, Eskom admitted that it had dipped into stage 7 load shedding. It explained that supply and demand was not consistent for a full day and that, at times, the utility could briefly move beyond the scheduled stage of load shedding, or even below it.

This week, the utility said that the load was “reduced” beyond 6,000MW, but the load that was “shed” was still under 6,000MW.

Speaking to the Sunday Times, energy expert Lungile Mashele said that, simply put, it was stage 8 load shedding, warning – like so many other analysts and experts – that the coming winter months are likely to be worse.

Out of time

With winter knocking on the door, South Africa is now out of time to resolve its energy crisis.

According to public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan, Eskom is unable to reliably produce 23,000MW of energy. Meanwhile, essential units remain offline, removing over 3,000MW of power from the grid.

Winter demand is expected to go as high as 37,000MW, and despite the government’s best efforts and big plans, the soonest the country will see any capacity return to the gris is when Koeberg unit 1 returns to service in August.

This harsh reality is also finally setting in for the planners and spin doctors, as it is now clear that the path out of the energy crisis is not as simple as building new capacity within specified timelines.

According to the City Press, the path out of the crisis is, in fact, muddier than ever, with policy becoming increasingly incoherent around coal and renewables.

For years, the government has remained steadfast that South Africa’s energy future and the end to load shedding lies on the path to renewables. Now that stage 8 load shedding is here and expected to get worse in the months to come, the messaging has suddenly turned.

Energy minister Gwede Mantashe has maintained that coal power will remain an important fixture in South Africa’s energy mix, despite the Integrated Resource Plan 2019 (IRP19) pointing to stations being rapidly decommissioned to make way for renewable energy.

However, Mantashe’s comments have always stood in contrast to the government’s official line of pushing net-zero and a green economy with renewables at its core as per the IRP19. This line has helped it draw billions of rands in investment and financial assistance from developed economies for the Just Energy Transition (JET).

More recently, however, more ministers are hitting reverse on this ‘main plan’.

Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has pointed out that the country faces difficult choices regarding power generation, saying that the plan to boost renewables doesn’t match the plan to decommission coal power plants “watt for watt”.

He said that the government should consider the option of slowing down the decommissioning of coal and instead invest in extending the life of the coal fleet.

“We won’t get 6,000MW now from renewables. It takes, on average, three years to construct, and part of the problem is that building the lines for that grid capacity takes five to eight years, so if we want to resolve load shedding in the next 12 to 24 months, the answer is making sure that the ageing fleet performs,” he said.

Gordhan has also suddenly adopted a similar approach, saying that the IRP19 and the JET need to be reviewed and rejigged to match not only the reality of the energy situation in South Africa but also the new global context.

“The IRP 19 needs to be modified so that we take into account these new realities. Perhaps the most urgent thing is how…we get the quickest input of new megawatts into our system. Without 4,000 to 6,000 more megawatts availability of new energy, as urgently as possible, we’re not going to cope with the immediate requirements,” he said.

Read: Tough choices for South Africa as stage 10 load shedding looms