More bad news about petrol prices in South Africa
Recoveries for petrol prices at the start of May 2026 are starting motorists on the back foot for the month, with another significant hike building for June.
The data for diesel drivers is much better, starting the month in positive territory—but this will be offset by the reintroduction of fuel taxes next month.
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices are showing an under-recovery of 82-84 cents per litre.
The positive slant on the numbers is that the under-recovery is narrowing, having been around 135 cents per litre just a day ago.
After months of pushing new record highs and adding R13 per litre to prices, diesel recoveries have swung into a large over-recovery of between R1.66 and R2.48 per litre.
These are the projected levels at the end of the first week of May:
- Petrol 93: increase of 84 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of 88 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of R2.48 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of R1.66 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: decrease of R2.29 per litre
The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, so it is not currently possible to provide an expected price for the coming month.
The recoveries reflect a stabilisation of global oil prices, albeit at higher rates.
After shooting above $110 a barrel at the end of April, prices have recovered to below $100 a barrel again on assurances of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire with Iran is still held despite renewed clashes between US and Iranian forces, sustaining speculation that a deal may be struck.
The oil market’s focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the war began at the end of February.
The head of the International Energy Agency warned the world was losing 14 million barrels of oil a day because of the war, and ramping up production after the conflict would be gradual.
On the rand side, the unit has strengthened, but remained range-bound as investors remained optimistic about a potential US-Iran peace deal.
Overall, oil prices are making a positive contribution to diesel recoveries, aided by a small boost from the rand/dollar exchange.
For petrol, the oil impact is still negative, with the rand/dollar exchange only pulling marginally in the opposite direction.
Petrol 95 daily projections (for June 2026)
Diesel (0.005%) wholesale daily projections (for June 2026)
Don’t celebrate too soon
However, the major caveat to the data is that it does not account for other items that will influence the pump prices in June.
Even with an over-recovery for diesel, fuel prices are effectively starting on a baseline increase of R1.50 per litre for petrol and R1.97 per litre for diesel.
This is because the National Treasury’s fuel levy relief, which started in April, will be reversed from June, where half the amount will be added back to the pump prices.
Taken in context of the latest recovery data, this means that petrol prices are currently on track for a R2.34 to R2.38 per litre hike.
Diesel, meanwhile, could see a smaller 51-cent per litre cut to 0.05% and a hike of 31 cents per litre for 0.005%, at current recovery levels plus the added taxes.
The table below outlines how the June fuel prices could be impacted.
| June projections | Recoveries Week 1 | Fuel tax added in June | Projected change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | (R0.84) | (R1.50) | (R2.34) |
| Petrol 95 | (R0.88) | (R1.50) | (R2.38) |
| Diesel 0.05% | R2.48 | (R1.97) | R0.51 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R1.66 | (R1.97) | (R0.31) |
Note: the above only considers the fuel levy being added back in June, as well as the current recovery data. It does not consider changes to the slate levy, which may also affect final pricing.
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