Energy

Great news for diesel prices in South Africa for June

Caitlyn Hilliard-Lomas

 ·22 May 2026

South African motorists are approaching a significant divide in fuel price adjustments for June. Diesel drivers are expected to experience relief, while petrol users may see record prices.

According to daily data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) on 21 May 2026, a decrease in international oil product prices over the course of May is set to reduce the costs of diesel and paraffin by several rands per litre next month. 

Petrol consumers will not benefit from this decrease, as international refining margins for petrol remain persistently high.

Here is what the data expects for June fuel prices based on the current averages:

• Petrol 95: Increase of 5.5 cents per litre
• Petrol 93: Decrease of 0.57 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: Decrease of R4.90 per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: Decrease of R4.11 per litre
• Illuminating Paraffin: Decrease of R5.04 per litre

Fuel prices in South Africa are primarily influenced by two key macro factors: the Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and international petroleum product prices. 

During the current review cycle, the local currency has shown resilience, consistently trading at levels that support local pump prices. As of 21 May, the daily Rand/Dollar exchange rate was recorded at R16.49. 

Overall, the stronger local currency has provided an approximate 8 to 10-cent-per-litre recovery benefit across all fuel types.

While the rand has offered uniform relief, international product prices have diverged, leading to different outlooks for petrol and diesel.

International petrol product prices climbed over the cycle, pulling down the average recovery by 13.7 c/l for Petrol 95 and 7.6 c/l for Petrol 93. 

This completely wiped out the rand’s gains, leaving petrol users with a flat outlook. Conversely, international diesel and paraffin prices collapsed during the same timeframe.

This drop injected an astronomical 480.9 c/l benefit into Diesel 0.05% and 494.3 c/l into Illuminating Paraffin.

The decrease in diesel costs will be a tremendous relief for the agricultural, logistics, and manufacturing sectors. This reduction will help curb nationwide supply chain inflation. 

Note that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) will announce the final adjusted price before it takes effect on the first Wednesday of June.

The only downside

The significant over-recoveries reported in the CEF data for June will be lessened by the reintroduction of South Africa’s fuel taxes.

This is because the government is reducing the fuel levy relief by half in June, with plans to phase it out entirely by July. 

Starting Wednesday, 3 June 2026, the levy rates will be adjusted as follows:

• Petrol Levy increases by R1.50: The relief drops from R3.00 to R1.50 per litre. This pushes the active levy up from R1.10 to R2.60 per litre.
• Diesel Levy increases by R1.97: The relief drops from R3.93 to R1.96 per litre. This moves the active diesel levy up from R0.00 to R1.97 per litre.

Starting from July 1, 2026, the temporary tax break will end completely, and the baseline fuel levies will be fully reinstated.

• Petrol General Fuel Levy: Returns to R4.10 per litre.
• Diesel General Fuel Levy: Returns to R3.93 per litre.

For the month of May, the rand is at R16.55/USD, while the average Brent crude oil price is approximately US$106.90 per barrel.

This is similar to last month’s average of R16.57/USD during the same period, despite the higher oil price compared to last month’s average of US$100.20 per barrel.

As a result, the rand oil price is also higher this month at R1,771 per barrel, which is a 6.5% increase compared to last month’s R1,663 per barrel.

However, the recent significant diesel price cut of R4.64 per litre announced by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for June is not a direct consequence of changes in the rand or oil prices.

The sharp decline in international petroleum product prices for gas, oil and paraffin is what influences the domestic diesel price.

Economists from Investec expect June to bring some relief on the fuel price front for diesel and paraffin, although no significant changes in petrol prices are anticipated if the current recovery trends continue.

Oil importers have felt the greatest impact from currency fluctuations, while the US dollar has strengthened since the beginning of the Middle East war due to safe-haven inflows.

This situation has been further supported by an improving outlook for the US equities market, where the risk dynamics are shifting.

If the over- and under-recoveries remain consistent until the official announcement from the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), in-land pump prices may adjust according to these projections: