Energy

R3 per litre pain for petrol prices in October

Staff Writer

 ·25 Sep 2026

The under-recovery for petrol prices in South Africa has hit the R3-per-litre mark, setting motorists up for almost R30-per-litre at the pump in October.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) has painted a bleak picture for motorists next month, as higher oil prices and a weaker rand have pushed recoveries deep into the red.

Oil prices have sat over $100 a barrel for most of the month, dipping below that level for only a few days as markets adjusted expectations around the war in the Middle East.

The rand/dollar exchange, while still making a positive contribution to recoveries, has dimmed this past week, losing its edge in global trade as interest rate hikes kicked in.

At the end of the week, petrol price under-recoveries have climbed to R3.01 per litre for Petrol 95 and R2.82 per litre for Petrol 93.

Diesel under-recoveries have also deepened, now sitting at R3.08 per litre for 0.005% sulphur and R2.68 per litre for 0.05% sulphur.

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.82 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R3.01 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.68 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.08 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R3.27 per litre

With one week left in the review period, motorists are all but guaranteed to see record-level price hikes in October.

If the current recovery levels continue through the end of the month, the petrol price will be only a few cents away from crossing the R30-per-litre mark.

While the daily recovery data gives a strong indicator of what motorists can expect in the new month, they are not the complete picture.

The government may step in with another round of tax relief, sparing motorists the immediate impact of the price hikes, but this is unlikely.

On the other side, the slate levy may again be adjusted upward, adding more taxes to the final amount.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce only the final adjustments and all relevant inclusions and exclusions a few days before the official change.

The new prices will kick in on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.

Oil prices going the wrong way

Economists had seen some hope for slightly lower under-recoveries earlier this week after the global oil price moved below $100 a barrel.

The recovery was driven by progress in Saudi Arabia to restore a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, thereby restoring some oil flows.

There were also positive signs that the United States and Iran would re-engage in peace talks to end the almost 7-month war.

While talk of ending the war persists, the market remains full of mixed signals.

There are indications of a pickup in Middle East flows, but there is also speculation that the US may ban diesel exports.

Analysts have noted that prices are likely to remain in the $100-$110 a barrel range until there is a material change in the outlook.

If there is a credible deal between the warring nations, prices could fall below $100 a barrel. If there is another collapse or escalation, $120 a barrel could be back in play.

As things currently stand, markets are unsure of which is more likely. Regardless, prices are more than 70% higher this year, stoking inflationary pressures.

This has played into central banks’ interest rate decisions over the past week, with the US Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points and the South African Reserve Bank following suit on Wednesday (23 September).

In turn, the rand has suffered, climbing to R16.30 to the dollar as markets digest the move.

While the rand is trading weaker—having moved below R16/$ earlier in the month—it remains in a relatively resilient position and is contributing positively to recoveries.

However, where the unit was offsetting the under-recoveries by about 15 cents per litre a few weeks ago, it is now only contributing about 6 cents per litre.